Contacts are at an advanced stage between the US and Iran to formulate a new agreement that will mainly address security in the maritime region of Ormuz.

According to information cited by Al Mayadeen, the memorandum being drafted envisages a series of de-escalation moves. Among them are the facilitation of navigation through the Hormuz Strait, the withdrawal of the US fleet from areas around Iran, and the lifting of the naval blockade.

At the same time, the release of some $12 billion of frozen Iranian funds, equivalent to half of Tehran’s frozen money, is also on the table.

Iran’s nuclear program is not part of the current framework of agreement. According to the same sources, this issue will be renegotiated within the next 30 days of the possible signing of the memorandum.

Nuclear terms

The draft agreement includes commitments by Iran that it will never seek to acquire nuclear weapons. At the same time, talks are envisaged on the “freezing” of the uranium enrichment programme and on the transfer of stocks of highly enriched uranium.

Tehran has already conveyed through mediators verbal commitments on the range of concessions it is willing to make, according to two sources quoted by US media.

The US is expected to discuss a framework for lifting sanctions and releasing funds during the 60 days, but these measures will only be implemented if there is a final agreement with the possibility of verification of its implementation.

At the same time, US military forces deployed in recent months will remain in the region and will only leave if there is a final diplomatic settlement.

The Israel-Hezbollah parameter

The draft agreement is also linked to ending the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

According to an Israeli official, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed reservations about this aspect during his communication with Trump.

The US side, however, made it clear that this is not a unilateral ceasefire. As clarified, in case Hezbollah attempts to rearm or launch new attacks, Israel will have the option to respond militarily.

“If Hezbollah honors the agreement, then Israel will honor it,” a U.S. official noted.

How the two sides reached the agreement

Donald Trump had a conference call with leaders of Arab and Muslim countries, including UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, but also the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan.

Pakistan appears to have played a decisive role in the consultations, led by army chief Assim Mounir, who was in Tehran for contacts with the Iranian leadership.

In the past few days, Trump reportedly appeared torn between opting for a diplomatic solution and the possibility of a broad military operation against Iran. However, by Saturday night (23/5), he had now clearly shifted towards the diplomatic route.

The White House believes that the latest disagreements can be settled in the next few hours and it is possible that the deal could be announced as early as Sunday.

A U.S. official warned, however, that the process could be terminated before the 60 days are up if Washington finds Tehran is not seriously engaged in the nuclear talks.

The US side sees the pressure on the Iranian economy as a key lever for Iran to accept a more comprehensive deal, which could lead to broader sanctions relief and the release of funds.

“It remains to be seen in practice how far Iran is willing to go. If it does wish to change course, this process will force it to make critical decisions about its future,” the US official said.

According to Trump associates, if Iran meets the requirements for the nuclear program, the US president appears ready to move to a full re-engagement with Tehran and pave the way for tapping into what they describe as the country’s “enormous” economic potential.

Iranian media reaction

At the same time, Iranian media are openly questioning Donald Trump’s statements about the full reopening of the Hormuz Strait.

The Fars agency called the US president’s claims “far from reality”, making it clear that even in the event of an agreement, control of the sea passage would continue to be exercised exclusively by the Islamic Republic.

According to the Iranian agency, Tehran will continue to decide on the route, transit time and relevant permits for ships passing through the area.

In fact, Fars argued that the possible return of trade to pre-war levels does not mean there will be “free transit” as was the case before the crisis.

Trump’s statements and international contacts

Donald Trump announced on Saturday (5/23) that he had telephone conversations with Middle Eastern and other leaders regarding the formulation of a memorandum of understanding for peace with Iran.

The US president claimed that the agreement is almost complete and that only the final details between the parties involved remain.

Contacts included, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman, the President of the United Arab Emirates Mohammed bin Zayed, Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and the King of Jordan Abdullah II.

Trump also said his conversation with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “went very well.”

Possible announcement in the next few hours

A source with knowledge of the contacts told Washington Times that a plan to end hostilities has already been agreed at a basic level and a formal announcement is expected by Sunday afternoon (5/24).

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