At a time when the economy is looking for a new pace of growth, Greek banks are returning to financing.

The emerging picture for 2026 shows that total credit expansion is expected to exceed 14 billion. euros, with systemic banks estimated to move above €12 billion in net lending growth.

In the first quarter of the year, the big three banks already recorded an expansion of 2.9 billion. Eurobank estimates that it will exceed EUR2.8 billion, National Bank estimates EUR3 billion. EUR 3,5 billion and Piraeus Bank the EUR 3,5 billion. Meanwhile, interest income continues to boost banking system profitability, with estimates putting it above €9 billion in total through 2026.

The sectors absorbing the most loans

SMEs remain a key recipient of funding, as they absorb more than 25% of total disbursements. These are mainly businesses with a turnover of up to €10 million, which have been significantly supported through European and EU programmes.

The banks consider this sector critical for the economy, as it is directly linked to employment and consumption. At the same time, however, it is also treated with increased attention because of the higher credit risk that many small businesses face.

Funding to the seafood sector remains particularly high, which absorbs about 15% of disbursements, while at some banks the percentage is even higher. Greek shipping continues to be a strategic sector of the economy, despite international fluctuations in transport and shipping markets.

tourism and hospitality are running at percentages of 5% to 10% of lending. Bank managements are keeping a close eye on tourism portfolios, mainly due to increased fuel costs and the impact on air travel. However, market players believe that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may boost demand for Greece over competing destinations such as Turkey and Egypt.

Real estate, trade and energy

Leasing is also a significant presence in financing, factoring and other forms of financing, accounting for more than 10% of disbursements.

A similar percentage is directed to oil refineries, while wholesale and retail accounts for about 3.6%. The real estate market absorbs about 4%, with banks seeing prospects again in real estate, mainly residential, tourism and logistics.

Meanwhile, lending to agriculture and structured finance continues, mainly through Piraeus Bank, while international syndicated loans are still at low levels, below 2% of portfolios.

The portfolios banks are watching closely

Despite the momentum in lending, banks are aware that the large credit expansion comes with increased risks. Particular attention is being paid to sectors dependent on international demand, consumption and energy prices.

Except for seafood and tourism, the microscope is also on trade, which is under pressure from inflation and falling consumption. Similarly, the energy sector is strongly affected by fluctuations in oil and gas prices.

Banks are now applying much more rigorous assessment models, looking in detail at cash flows, the viability of investment projects and the collateral of any financing.

The role of the Recovery Fund

The contribution of the Recovery Fund (RRF) is also seen as crucial, as the related loans continue to support investment and new business projects.

Bank officials believe that increased demand may leave several businesses out of the program, and expect RRF loans to continue to have a positive footprint on balance sheets through 2028.

At the same time, high profitability is allowing lending institutions to provision for potential bad debts and strengthen their capital base. Although Greece is recording a credit growth rate of around 5%, higher than the 3% of the eurozone, banks are now placing more emphasis on the quality of loans and not just their growth rate.

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