The government is showing resilience, as the New Democracy<\/b> maintains a strong lead and the opposition<\/b> is fragmented as it seeks a new political identity and balance<\/b>.<\/p>\n
In a period where the political agenda is being reshaped<\/b> anew through the results of polls<\/b> and realignments within the party system, Kyriakos Mitsotakis and New Democracy<\/b> appear to maintain a steady lead and strong resilience in the face of pressures from the political environment<\/b>. At the same time, Alexis Tsipras and Maria Karystianou<\/b> are attempting, from different starting points and using different political tools<\/b>, to establish new forms of representation within the opposition<\/b>, in a context of increased fragmentation and fluidity<\/b>. However, the data so far indicate that, despite the mobility and new entrants into the political system<\/b>, the ruling coalition continues to maintain its leading position, while the opposition<\/b> struggles to formulate a unified and convincing alternative narrative of power<\/b>.<\/p>\n
In this context, the emergence of new political formations<\/b> and initiatives that seek to capitalize on dissatisfaction<\/b> or gaps in representation within the political system<\/b>, thereby reshaping to some extent the opposition landscape<\/b>. However, as recently recorded polls show, their impact so far has mainly concerned the internal redistribution of power<\/b> among the opposition parties, without substantially altering the overall balance of power<\/b>. At the same time, the ruling party maintains a steady lead<\/b>, capitalizing on the relative fragmentation of its opponents<\/b> and their inability to formulate a unified, convincing narrative<\/b>.<\/p>\nThe problematic situation<\/h3>\n
This is certainly a problematic situation facing the Greek party system, given that, apart from the extreme fragmentation of the opposition, seven of the major parties are personality-driven. This fact is reminiscent of other eras in Greece\u2019s past, when the country was plagued by spineless party systems.<\/p>\n
Before we move on to the general picture, however, we must certainly pause to consider the two new entries, which are by no means insignificant. We are referring to the initiative of two prominent figures who had the opportunity to do so. On the one hand, the so-called \u201cMother of Tempi,\u201d who, following the tragic train accident about three years ago, made her mark on the country\u2019s political scene in her own way; and on the other, a former prime minister who, despite his party\u2019s crushing defeat in the last elections, seems to believe that by abandoning his former comrades, he can claim a new, better fate.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s also look at some basic semiotics. Ms. Karystianou\u2019s Hope for Democracy was launched with a rather amateurish communication package and a political discourse reminiscent of a \u201cYouth Parliament.\u201d On the other hand, Mr. Tsipras\u2019s ELAS party was overflowing with communication techniques (though they failed to anticipate the lowered gaze that anxiously watched the autoque, exposing the speaker), while his political speech, however well-written it may have been, recounted mostly general observations wrapped in the trappings of the past.<\/p>\n
In any case, the glaring lack of substantiated or even original policy proposals for the country\u2019s future, particularly in light of the dramatic new conditions that are becoming imperative in the modern world, seems to be their common characteristic for the time being. On the other hand, however, their differences are also significant, the most important being that, while Alexis Tsipras excels at least in terms of communication, M. Karistianou excels in the ultimately positive impressions, as recorded in all polls without exception.<\/p>\n
This is a basic initial analysis that does not wear blinders, but in no way negates the possibility that both new parties could claim significant electoral influence, as the initial polls seem to indicate. The graph below presents the average of the data published by all polling firms from the last week of May onward, a total of 10 (Metron, Pulse, Marc, Alco, GPO, Op. Poll, Palmos Analysis, Prorata, Real Polls, Interview).<\/p>\n
In other words, we have a so-called \u201cPoll of Polls,\u201d which can be compared to two other periods of data releases from exactly the same companies. First of all, with December 2024, when all the significant new developments following the European elections had taken shape (Androulakis\u2019s re-election in PASOK, Kasselakis\u2019s expulsion from SYRIZA, Samaras\u2019s expulsion from New Democracy), but also a year later, at the end of 2025, when the undoubtedly most difficult year for the government in its seven-year term to date was coming to a close (massive protests over the Tempi tolls, OPEKEPE, the fallout from the wiretapping scandal, and mounting inflationary pressures).<\/p>\n
The data are presented based on the so-called voting intention among valid votes (i.e., excluding abstentions or invalid\/blank votes), not only because some companies publish only this breakdown, but also because the others show significant discrepancies in this parameter.<\/p>\n
Therefore, a relatively reliable average cannot be determined unless this deviation is balanced out. It should also be noted that we are in an era where companies are forced to redefine their sampling frameworks (landlines are no longer sufficient), individual sampling errors are not unlikely, and therefore the average may well balance them out.<\/p>\n
Given these facts, the two new entrants do indeed appear high in the ranking of electoral influence attributed to the opposition, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total votes (ELAS 13.7%, Hope for Democracy 9.5%), significantly reshaping the distribution of electoral influence among the opposition parties and groups.<\/p>\n
All figures are down compared to previous readings at the end of 2025, while the government appears not only unaffected but also on an upward trend. This is a very significant finding for a government in the second half of its second four-year term, showing that it is able to realign its forces, maintaining a significant lead over the other political forces.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Kyriakos Mitsotakis\u2019s lead is striking in questions regarding the most suitable prime minister, which were posed in the form of various dichotomies in the recent June survey by Palmos Analysis on behalf of \u201cE.T.\u201d, garnering a majority (37%-38%).<\/p>\n
Of course, nothing can be considered final yet, and first and , the two new parties will have to prove that they can maintain their entry thresholds in the polls after the initial period of their inclusion, which is usually favorable to new entrants.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The government is showing resilience, as New Democracy maintains a strong lead and the opposition remains fragmented in its search for a new political direction …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10937,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10936"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10936\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}