There is no point in discussing alternative governance solutions if you do not clearly see the power dynamics, the dynamics that may develop, and the electoral law. <\/p>\n
Of course, we cannot pretend to be prophets, but we can say categorically, based on current political dynamics, that all the scenarios being discussed regarding progressive coalitions are of no value, no significance, as long as there is one party so far ahead of the second and as long as no party appears capable of surpassing 20%. Then, combined with a possible decline in the poll numbers of ND, one might say that something is shifting. <\/p>\n
However, the overall picture remains largely unchanged, as it is difficult to imagine any scenario in which New Democracy\u2019s share of the vote falls below 25%, meaning zero utilization of the bonus and conditions of complete political gridlock. New Democracy, on the other hand, currently appears to be picking up momentum, strengthening its cohesion, and in any case, it has room to maneuver. <\/p>\n
Let\u2019s put it more bluntly. Anyone making predictions must always take into account the characteristics of the electoral law. And it is puzzling that politicians with extensive political and constitutional experience and knowledge speak of an ungovernable country. They are likely turning their desires into policy, and that is a fatal mistake in politics.<\/b><\/p>\n
Key factors for forming a self-sufficient government are the percentage of the leading party, combined with the percentage of parties that remain outside Parliament. The higher the combined share of the parties outside Parliament, the lower the percentage required for the leading party. <\/p>\n
For example, the 158 seats in the June election, which was held under the electoral system still in effect today, were achieved with New Democracy at 40.56% and parties outside Parliament at 6.08%. If in those elections Freedom Course, which barely achieved a 3.17% share, New Democracy would have needed only 37.5% to secure 151 seats, with the total share of parties outside Parliament at 9.25%. But let\u2019s consider the opposite scenario as well. If New Democracy had received 38.5%\u201339%\u2014just slightly less than what it ultimately received\u2014and MERA 25 had managed to enter Parliament, then \u2026we would be heading for a third election, since New Democracy would have narrowly failed to secure a majority. <\/p>\n
So, when we talk about a majority, let\u2019s not have 40% in mind. It might be achievable even with 36.5%\u201337%. Note, however, the irony of the situation. If, for example, A. Samaras ultimately receives 2.99%, it is not just that he will not enter Parliament\u2014with all that this implies politically. By adding this slightly less than 3% to the pile of parties that will have been left out of Parliament, he will have contributed decisively to lowering the threshold for an absolute majority for K. Mitsotakis. <\/p>\n
So let\u2019s not rush to conclusions. It is no coincidence that K. Mitsotakis for a first-round election is no accident. The goal of an outright majority is a marginally realistic goal for Kyriakos Mitsotakis in view of the upcoming elections. No one can rule out that he will achieve it. That is why, after all, the Prime Minister is setting the goal of winning the first round, knowing full well that it is a difficult, but not an impossible one, based on the qualitative findings of the polls and the reserves that New Democracy appears to have. <\/p>\n
All the more so when New Democracy has the advantage of governability, as it is the only obvious contender for power. Essentially, it is running alone, with its only opponents being itself, the fatigue of years in power, and the climate of social discontent that naturally tends to be directed at the government of the day. <\/p>\n
Of course, we must not forget that history is often written by unexpected events, and battles are decided by the details.
This article was published on Liberal.gr<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
There is no point in discussing alternative forms of governance if you do not clearly understand the balance of power and the dynamics that may …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10998,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10997"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10997\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}