The geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz<\/b> and Tehran\u2019s new transit conditions<\/b> are intensifying uncertainty in the markets<\/b> oil <\/b>and are causing sharp fluctuations in Brent prices<\/b>.<\/p>\n
The international energy<\/b> are entering a new phase of heightened volatility, as developments in the Strait of Hormuz<\/b>, combined with the interventions and restrictions imposed <\/b>by Iran <\/b>on shipping, are reshaping the balance of global oil supply<\/b> and heightening the climate of uncertainty surrounding the medium-term trajectory of prices of Brent<\/b>.<\/p>\n
According to Newmoney.gr, hopes for a de-escalation of the crisis in the Middle East<\/b> and for a gradual restoration of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz<\/b> led crude oil prices to a modest rise on Friday<\/b>, with Brent however recording a weekly drop of nearly 8%<\/b>, and new demands set by Tehran<\/b> regarding ship transit through the strategically important waterway<\/b>.<\/p>\nThe Big Picture<\/h3>\n
Brent rose by 66 cents, or 0.53%, to $80.38 per barrel, while U.S. WTI rose 94 cents, or 1.23%, to $77.54.<\/p>\n
It should be noted that trading was limited due to a federal holiday in the United States.<\/p>\n
Oil-producing Gulf countries are preparing to increase their exports following the implementation of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. According to data from MarineTraffic, at least four tankers carrying crude oil, refined products, and liquefied petroleum gas entered the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, bound for Iraqi ports in the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n
Despite the resumption of shipping, Tehran sent a message signaling stricter control of the region. Iranian state television reported that ships must coordinate their passage with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, in a directive distributed to the shipping industry and obtained by Reuters, Iran\u2019s Persian Gulf Straits Authority (PGSA) stated that \u201cno vessel is permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without a valid transit permit issued by the PGSA.\u201d<\/p>\n
The new conditions imposed by Iran for the use of the Strait contributed to the rise in prices on Friday, according to Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe market had priced in an agreement and its smooth implementation. So far, however, things aren\u2019t playing out exactly that way,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n
Despite Friday\u2019s rally, Brent is down about 8% for the week, reflecting a significant easing of concerns over global supply following the U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war.<\/p>\n
Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, estimated that prices are gradually moving back toward the levels seen before the conflict began.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe expect larger volumes of oil to hit the market in the coming days. The backlog of ships could move faster than many believe, and if there is cooperation between Iran and the U.S., the situation could normalize very quickly,\u201d he emphasized.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials scheduled for Friday in Switzerland has been postponed, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry stating that the talks will take place in the coming days.<\/p>\n
Tehran argued that there is no longer an urgent need for a meeting, as the memorandum of understanding to end the war has already been digitally signed by both sides.<\/p>\n
Analysts estimate that the agreement could free up more than 85 million barrels of oil currently trapped in the Persian Gulf, while the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports is expected to further increase global supply.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, the full restoration of flows through the Strait of Hormuz\u2014through which approximately 20% of the world\u2019s oil and LNG supply passes\u2014may take several months.<\/p>\n
Citi estimates a 60% probability that flows will fully normalize, leading the oil market into a surplus and prices to $60\u201365 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027.<\/p>\n
For its part, Commerzbank has revised its forecast for Brent down to $80 per barrel by the end of the year, from $85 previously, although it believes prices will remain above pre-war levels for much of next year.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Iraq\u2019s Oil Minister, Basim Mohammed, stated that the country\u2019s oil fields are ready to return to full operation and that production will gradually be restored to previous levels.<\/p>\n
On the demand front, OPEC estimated in its World Oil Outlook 2026 that global oil consumption will rise to 113.3 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 105.1 million barrels in 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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