It is good in politics to speak in terms and facts that make you credible. Otherwise you risk not being believed even by your narrow party circle<\/b> and therefore not building a solid narrative. <\/p>\n
Let’s take two examples to understand what we mean. <\/p>\n
For example, the familiar line “the government is in retreat” is uttered by opposition party members<\/b>. You then look at the last three polls published after Easter and see that the average vote estimate in them was 30.1%. Was there a drop? Of course, from 1.5%-2.4% from what I saw<\/b>. Is that serious? Of course it is. Is there a risk that it could lose more? Yes, but it can also gain strength, as it showed three times last year (temperature rallies for Tempe, 1st File for OPEKEPE last year, farm rallies<\/b>) when it fell and then made up for its losses.<\/p>\n
However, does 30.1% indicate a government in retreat, much more so when the second party is (in these three polls) close to 16% with a 1%-1.5% rise and the gap between them is 14.1 points<\/b>? Well, no. It’s common sense that says so. The polling picture shows a durable and stable lead amidst constant negative stories about it, and that should give the opposition pause for thought.<\/p>\n
And let’s consider that the opinion polls did not measure the impact of the government’s economic measures, nor the Macron visit. How to do it. Governments don’t fall on catchphrases and rhetorical schemes.<\/b><\/p>\n
As E. Venizelos and told Delphi<\/b> that from his study of all elections in the post-revolutionary period he concludes that citizens give first votes, they give second chances, they don’t give third. The truth is that it doesn’t need much study.<\/p>\n
In fact, governments in the post-independence period seem to have secured two consecutive victories. There is of course one exception, even if it was the interim emergence of another government, that of Conos Mitsotakis<\/b> after which A. Papandreou<\/b> and PASOK. But let’s keep the two consecutive terms as tradition.<\/p>\n
Traditions seem, however, to be shattered. In 2023, K. Mitsotakis defeated A. Tsipras for the second time, increasing the gap between him and SYRIZA by more than twenty points and sinking him from 32% in 2019 to 18% in 2023<\/b>. Then there is the first time that a government in its seventh year in office leads the second party by 14%-15%.<\/p>\n
But there are also the findings of the polls. The March victory performance gave 61.1% to ND and even 55.6% said it was very and fairly likely that Mitsotakis would secure a third term (OPINION POLL’s March survey for ACTION 24). Conclusion: Let’s not oversimplify the political processes so much.<\/b><\/p>\n
The government has its difficulties and its demons, as does the opposition its weakness and the prospect of the political deck being shuffled too much in its own backyard by the emergence of the Tsipras and Carstenos parties. We’ll see how they end up between now and the polls, but it’s not through invoking surrenders. Many have been overturned in recent years.<\/p>\n
* This article was published at Liberal.gr<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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