The truce between the US and Iran is now in danger of collapsing.<\/p>\n
Firefights broke out yesterday Monday in the Sea of Hormuz and a resumption of Iranian fire against one of its Gulf neighbors, the United Arab Emirates<\/b>.<\/p>\n
The new sharp rise in tensions, further testing the ceasefire in place since April 8, followed the announcement by Donald Trump that a U.S. military operation would be conducted to restore traffic in the Strait, which Iran has effectively closed.<\/p>\n
The U.S. president threatened, according to a Fox News report, that the Iranians will be pulverized, “disappear from the face of the Earth”<\/b> as he put it, if they target US warships ships<\/b>.<\/p>\n
Since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran, Tehran has imposed strict control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG consumed globally passes in peacetime.<\/p>\n
About 20,000 seafarers are stranded there, according to a senior official at the UKMTO.<\/b><\/p>\n
The attacks, the first against civilian facilities in a Gulf country in more than a month, have stirred concerns in markets, where oil prices have soared.<\/b><\/p>\n
The oil facility in Fujaira, one of the few accessible in the region without a crossing through the strait, was targeted by a drone that caused a fire. Three Indian nationals were “injured,” though not seriously, according to local authorities.<\/p>\n
The emirates also reported being targeted by four cruise missiles “fired from Iran,” three of which were intercepted and one of which fell into the sea, according to the defence ministry. An oil tanker belonging to the national oil company ADNOC was also targeted by two Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles.<\/p>\n
The country denounced the “dangerous escalation” and said it reserved the right to retaliate.<\/p>\n
The Islamic Republic “had no plan to target the Emirates,” Iranian state television said, citing a senior officer whom it did not name. The same officer condemned the consequences of “US military adventurism”, referring to the operation to get merchant ships blockaded in the Gulf out of the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen,<\/b> condemned Iran’s “clear violation of (UAE) sovereignty and international law” and expressed solidarity with “the people of the Emirates.”<\/b> British Prime Minister Kir Starmers<\/b> “condemned” the attack and called for “de-escalation.” Saudi Arabia warned against further “military escalation” and urged “continued diplomatic efforts.”<\/p>\nOil prices rise further<\/h3>\n
Iran, which has imposed de facto transit fees on the Strait, warned the US against any intervention. “If they intend to approach or penetrate, they will be targeted and attacked,” warned General Ali Abdullahi<\/b>, the chief of staff.<\/p>\n
But the US president expressed satisfaction with the initiative, which is going “very well” according to him. He also reiterated for the umpteenth time that there is no question of allowing Iran to acquire a nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n
Two US-flagged merchant ships have “successfully” crossed the Seno, according to the US military’s joint command responsible for the Middle East (CENTCOM, “Central Command”). According to CENTCOM chief, Admiral Brad Cooper<\/b>, US armed forces destroyed six Iranian flotillas and intercepted missiles and drones launched by Iranian armed forces against US warships and merchant ships.<\/p>\n
Tehran denied that merchant ships had crossed the Strait and that the U.S. military destroyed Iranian warships.<\/p>\n
Seoul called it an “explosion” and a fire on a South Korean ship in the S\u00e9no Hormus Strait.<\/p>\n
With this backdrop, the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude, an international benchmark variety, closed Monday at $114.44 (+5.8%).<\/b><\/p>\n
Expressing scepticism about the possibility of an immediate resumption of shipping and normalisation of the strait situation, analysts at Eurasia Group warn that if the disruption in shipping traffic is prolonged, prices will rise even further.<\/p>\n
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