{"id":5648,"date":"2026-05-15T11:36:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T08:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/?p=5648"},"modified":"2026-05-15T11:36:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T08:36:00","slug":"opec-the-riyadh-abu-dhabi-rift-and-athens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/?p=5648","title":{"rendered":"OPEC, the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi rift and Athens"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the war in the Middle East<\/b> continues to cause shocks in energy markets, with OPEC<\/b> recording a big drop in oil production, Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis,<\/b> met his Middle East counterpart in Athens yesterday.gr\/saoydiki-aravia”>SSaudi Arabia, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud<\/b>.<\/p>\n

\"6970004.jpg\"<\/figure>\n

“I will have the honor to receive the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia<\/b>. This comes after my visit with the Prime Minister to the United Arab Emirates (UAE)<\/b> and after the visit of the leader of Qatar<\/b> to Athens. Greece is not only the gateway<\/b> of the Arab world and especially of the Gulf States to Europe<\/b> and the world, but above all the most reliable ally in the wider region,” Mr Gerapetritis stressed earlier, speaking at a conference on energy transition. <\/p>\n

Following the US – Israel<\/b> attack<\/b> against Iran<\/b>, the Seaway of Hormuz<\/b>, a key sea artery through which about 1\/5 of the world’s oil supplies as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass, has been closed for eight weeks. The consequences were also documented in OPEC’s announcement the day before yesterday.<\/b><\/p>\n

More specifically, its member states have recorded a significant drop in oil production<\/b> of more than 30<\/b>% since the conflict began in late February. OPEC production fell by 1.7 million barrels per day in April, following an even larger drop of 7.9 million barrels per day in March. The losses<\/b> of the oil cartel countries combined are now estimated at more than 9.7 million barrels a day.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia,<\/b> the world’s biggest oil exporter and de facto OPEC leader, and the UAE – the cartel’s third-largest exporter – have redirected some of their production to ports that bypass Hormuz. Similarly, non-OPEC countries such as the US<\/b> significantly increased their exports in response to the energy market turmoil.<\/p>\n

While, the International Energy Agency (IEA) <\/b>has noted that due to the Ormuz blockade, global fossil fuel stocks are declining at an unprecedented rate, predicting “a new period of sharp price volatility ahead of peak summer demand”.<\/p>\n

Besides the obvious, OPEC is being asked to manage the UAE’s withdrawal<\/b> from the cartel. Typically, the withdrawal is related to the disagreement with Riyadh; the Emirates wants a quick increase in oil production for immediate profit, while the Kingdom seeks to manage global supply to support prices<\/b> in the long term.<\/p>\n

Behind the technical difference<\/b> is a deeper rift between the two like-minded and like-minded countries, which does not leave Athens, which has strategic relations with both, indifferent. Greece has protected the two Gulf countries from Iranian attacks: with the Patriot long-range anti-aircraft system artillery battery located in Saudi Arabia from 2021 and by offering ammunition (missiles, etc.) to the Emirates, with which it has signed an agreement that includes a mutual defence assistance clause from 2020.<\/p>\n

Divergences<\/b><\/h3>\n

Although strategic partners and allies of the US,<\/b> the two countries have different security orientations. Saudi Arabia has a defence pact (with a mutual defence assistance clause) with nuclear<\/b> Pakistan<\/b>, even attempting to include Turkey in it; the Emirates have a strategic relationship with nuclear India,<\/b> Pakistan’s rival.<\/p>\n

In 2020, the Emiratis<\/b> broke the Arab position of recognizing Israel<\/b> after the establishment of a Palestinian state, signing the Abraham Accords<\/b> in 2020. <\/b>On the flip side, any movement in Israel-Saudi relations froze after the 7 October 2023<\/b> attack by Hamas<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Still, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi<\/b> support opposing sides in the Sudanese<\/b> civil war. The kingdom, which supports the ruling Sudanese army while taking a more balancing role, has pressed the US to impose sanctions on the UAE for supporting the RSF<\/b> militia. If the RSF prevails in the civil war, the Emirates will gain an ally on the Red Sea coast – just across the water from Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

In addition, they are supporting different factions in the Yemeni<\/b> civil war<\/b>. The Kingdom supports the country’s internationally recognized government, while the Emiratis support the secessionist groups in the south. Before war broke out in Iran, Riyadh attacked the separatists in Yemen, forcing the Emiratis to withdraw their forces. The same applies to the horn of Africa: Riyadh supports Somalia and the Emiratis support Somaliland, though they have not yet recognized it as Israel has.<\/p>\n

Note that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi<\/b> have had close cooperation since the Arab Spring,<\/b> as both were concerned about the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and Houthi rebels. They also collaborated in the blockade of Qatar. <\/p>\n

“The Emiratis have always seen the Saudis<\/b> as an aggressive neighbor who wants to make them subservient,” Patrick Theros, American ambassador-at-large of Greek descent who served in the Gulf, told Middle East Eye<\/b>. Diplomats, businessmen and analysts who spoke to the same outlet estimated that a rift between the two would largely determine the future of the Middle East.<\/b><\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the war in the Middle East continues to cause shocks in energy markets, with OPEC recording a big drop in production …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5649,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5648"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5648\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.tomanifesto.gr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}