Tankers<\/b>, reduced production <\/b>and geopolitical risks<\/b> are keeping high<\/a> prices of oil<\/b> and prolong global energy uncertainty<\/b>.<\/p>\n
For international energy markets<\/b>, the restoration of normalcy<\/b> no longer depends not only on the silencing of weapons<\/b> in the Middle East<\/b>, but on whether the normal functioning<\/b> of one of the world’s most important maritime energy arteries<\/b> can be restored. The Seaway of Hormuz<\/b>, through which about 20% of the world’s oil trade<\/b> and a significant portion of LNG<\/b> cargoes pass<\/b>, remains the focus of geopolitical uncertainty, keeping the risk high for markets<\/b>, shipping companies<\/b> and energy producers<\/b>. Despite optimistic assessments of a possible de-escalation of the crisis<\/b> between the US and Iran<\/b>, analysts warn that the return of energy flows<\/b> to pre- crisis levels<\/b> will be a long and complex process<\/b>, as the decongestion of maritime transport<\/b>, restarting oil production<\/b> and restoring market confidence<\/b> will take time<\/b>, keeping oil<\/b>, fuel<\/b> and energy<\/b> prices elevated for many more months<\/b>.<\/p>\n
Energy markets seem to have been living for months in a perpetual wait<\/b>. Every new piece of information about talks between Washington and Tehran<\/b> raises hopes of de-escalation<\/b>, only to be belied a few hours later by a new military escalation<\/b>, an attack on a ship or another threat to the Strait of Hormuz<\/b>. So despite American officials insisting that a deal<\/b> is close, oil traders<\/b> are shying away from betting on a quick return to normal<\/b>.<\/p>\nThe Questions<\/h3>\n
The key question now is not just when the war in Iran will end, but how quickly the global energy market can be restored. And the answer that a growing number of analysts are giving is sobering: even if hostilities were to end today, the energy crisis would continue to affect economies for many months to come.<\/p>\n
The reason lies in the Strait of Hormuz. The seaway through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG trade passes has in recent months become Iran’s most important geopolitical weapon. With mines, drones, speedboats and severe restrictions on navigation, Tehran has effectively managed to gain control over one of the world’s most critical energy arteries.<\/p>\n
But even if there is an agreement to reopen the straits, nothing will immediately return to pre-war levels.<\/p>\n
The first big problem is shipping itself. Some 166 tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying nearly 170 million barrels of oil. Their gradual removal will take weeks, as the tankers are moving at low speeds and the transits will be under strict security control.<\/p>\n
Only when these ships are removed will new empty tankers be able to enter to load oil and gas. Market analysts estimate that a return to full capacity may take up to three months, even under ideal conditions.<\/p>\n
This means that oil flows to Europe, Asia and the US will not be restored immediately. And as long as supply remains constrained, prices are unlikely to retreat substantially.<\/p>\n
The second big issue is inventories. During the war, oil producers filled storage tanks because they could not export their production. When Hormuz reopens, the first cargoes will be used mainly to deplete those facilities, not to immediately increase global market supply.<\/p>\n
Perhaps the biggest problem is that Middle Eastern oil fields cannot simply “flip a switch” and return to normal production. Many fields were shut down or operated at extremely low levels during the war, which creates enormous technical difficulties in restarting.<\/p>\n
The process requires slow and careful moves to avoid losing pressure in the fields or causing permanent damage that would require new drilling and billions in investment. In many cases, water and gas pressure must be balanced simultaneously in dozens of neighboring oil fields, requiring close coordination between states and companies.<\/p>\n
According to market estimates, about 12 million barrels of crude oil per day and another 3 million barrels of refined products remain off the market across the Middle East, mostly in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Getting this production back is considered neither easy nor quick.<\/p>\n
At the same time, several energy infrastructures have been damaged. Refineries, gas plants, storage facilities and pipelines need repairs that in some cases could take years.<\/p>\n
Even if there is a formal agreement, traders and shipping companies are unlikely to be immediately convinced that the crisis is over. There have been several failed ceasefire attempts in recent months, with Iran accusing the US and Israel of violating previous agreements.<\/p>\n
This is why oil has remained firmly above $94 a barrel since mid-March, despite repeated expectations of a de-escalation. JPMorgan analysts estimate that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens in early June, Brent will average close to $97 for the rest of the year.<\/p>\n
At the same time, insurance companies have dramatically increased coverage costs for ships passing through the region. Even after a possible deal, many shipowners may avoid the Strait of Hormuz for fear of mines, attacks or new military tensions.<\/p>\n
For markets, then, the end of the war will not automatically mean the end of the energy crisis. Instead, it is more likely that the global economy will continue to live for a long time with expensive oil, high fuel prices and persistent inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n
The big gamble now is not just whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, but whether the world can believe that it will remain open.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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