The agreement U.S. -Iran agreement paves the way for oil and , but confidence in maritime routes remains fragile.

The countdown to the restart of one of the world’s most important maritime energy arteries has begun, with international markets already pricing in a de-escalation following the agreement between the United States and Iran, while the shipping community is adopting a wait-and-see approach. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil flows pass, are once again at the center of global trade, as dozens of tankers wait for safe passage to be restored. Despite the positive reaction to energy prices and expectations for a return to normal trade activity, the risks posed by potential failures in the agreement’s implementation, concerns about maritime security, and the caution of shipowners and insurers indicate that a full return to normalcy will require time and evidence in practice.

The agreement between the United States and Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz brought relief to markets and a significant drop in oil prices. However, a return to normalcy for international shipping and global energy trade is by no means a given.

Estimates

According to estimates by the shipping data company Kpler, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could recover to about 50% of pre-war levels within the first month of the agreement’s implementation, provided there are no major disruptions.

Washington and Tehran are expected to formally sign the agreement on Friday in Switzerland. The agreement provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade against Iran.

The first ships to pass through

Kpler analysts estimate that daily ship traffic could gradually increase to 40 ships per day, compared to about 100 transits before the war began on February 28.

Before the crisis, approximately 20% of global oil flows passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation changed dramatically when Iran began targeting tankers in early March, driving much of commercial shipping out of the region.

The first ships expected to pass through will be the fully loaded tankers that have been stranded in the Persian Gulf over the past few months.

According to Kpler, approximately 118 tankers are currently in the region and could leave within the first 15 days of the agreement’s implementation.

Analysts warn, however, that the departure of this fleet is an exceptional and temporary phenomenon and should not be interpreted as a permanent return of shipping activity to pre-war levels.

The crucial question is how many new ships will want to enter the Persian Gulf once the current backlog of cargo has been cleared.

The wait in the Gulf of Oman

A significant number of tankers remain anchored in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, waiting for the safe reopening of the shipping lane.

Kpler’s chief shipping market analyst, Matt Wright, estimates that the inflow of tankers into the Persian Gulf could rise to 12 vessels per day within the first 30 days, which is about 50% of pre-war levels.

Nevertheless, many shipowners remain cautious. As he points out, several companies will prefer to monitor the initial transits first before deciding to return to the region.

The absence of attacks and confirmation that there are no active minefields will be key prerequisites for restoring confidence.

Insurance companies are also expected to adopt a similar stance, which will begin to reduce war risk premiums only once it is proven in practice that transits can be carried out safely.

Shipowners are waiting, but the risks remain

Frontline’s CEO, Lars Bårstad, appeared more optimistic, estimating that shipping traffic will increase very rapidly once the agreement is signed.

The company manages approximately 80 tankers worldwide, five of which remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Despite the optimism, serious uncertainties remain.

One of the main problems is that the United States and Iran appear to interpret certain aspects of the agreement differently.

Iranian state media claim that ships will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz free of charge for a period of 60 days, after which control will be transferred to Iran and Oman.

In contrast, U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance stated that the U.S. position calls for permanent free passage without fees.

Fear of landmines

The issue of landmines reportedly planted in the area is also causing particular concern.

U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly downplayed the danger, however, Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently told Congress that Iran had mined large sections of the Strait of Hormuz.

The international shipping association BIMCO warned on Monday that the threat of mines remains a serious concern and designated the area as high-risk for shipping. Similar warnings have been issued by security experts, who estimate that the complete clearance of mines could take weeks or even months.

BIMCO’s head of security, Jakob Larsen, stressed that the lack of details surrounding the agreement and the history of overly optimistic assurances call for particular caution.

As he noted, the security situation remains volatile, and the risks to ships continue to be significant, despite the agreement between Washington and Tehran.

In other words, the agreement may have paved the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but a true return to normalcy for shipping and global energy flows is expected to be a process that will require time, security, and the restoration of trust.