On June 23, 2016, British voters chose to leave the European Union, sending shockwaves across the continent.
To mark the anniversary, the Bertelsmann Foundation (Bertelsmann Stiftung) released exclusive data from public opinion surveys conducted over the past ten years in the United Kingdom and the European Union. The findings show that Brexit did not cause further fragmentation of the EU , nor did it lead to a permanent divergence between British and European public opinion. Instead, they signal a shared preference for realistic cooperation.
Fears that Brexit would trigger a broader exit from the EU never materialized. In March 2026, only 21% of Britons and 18% of EU citizens believed that other member states would follow the example of the United Kingdom and leave the Union; less than half the percentage recorded in March 2018. While the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum was close, such a majority has not reappeared since then. When asked how they would vote in a referendum on EU membership, more than 50% of Britons have consistently stated over the past ten years that they would vote to remain. The most recent figures, from March 2026, show a steady majority in favor of remaining, at 57%.
The populist promise that people would be better off after Brexit proved to be false. Shortly after the referendum, Britons were relatively optimistic about their future outside the EU. A decade later, that optimism about Brexit has collapsed. In March 2026, only 41% of Britons said they felt positive about their personal situation in the future, marking a decline of 21 percentage points. Overall, the early optimism about Brexit has given way to a wave of pessimism in the United Kingdom.
Brexit has not created a permanent psychological divide between British and European public opinion. For ten years, Britons and continental Europeans have increasingly shared common concerns and expectations regarding the future of Europe. In March 2026, their attitudes were remarkably similar: support for a stronger EU role in global affairs stood at 66% in the United Kingdom and 71% across the EU; roughly half of respondents on both sides viewed the EU positively, and levels of satisfaction with democracydemocracy as well as perceptions of the EU’s direction were nearly identical.
Jake Benford, a specialist at the Bertelsmann Stiftung for the United Kingdom, says: “The public has moved faster than politics. Citizens are increasingly recognizing that European fragmentation comes at a cost: less security, less resilience, and less influence in the world. The question is whether politicians can move beyond the divisions of the past and respond to this growing public realism.”
Florian Kommer, a Europe expert at Bertelsmann Stiftung, commented: “In 2016, many believed that the Brexit referendum marked the beginning of the end for the European Union. A decade later, the picture looks very different. Our findings show that the scope for EU-UK cooperation may be broader today than is often assumed.”
