Alexis Tsipras is well aware that if his new party does not manage to win second place, the blow will be severe.
The battle for dominance in the Center Left seems to be taking on the characteristics of an existential conflict, with attention shifting from the top to the bottom of the competition, where Alexis Tsipras and Nikos Androulakis are gearing up for a countdown that many are calling “your death, my life”.
The strategic importance of second place has been elevated to the highest priority, since in the fragmented opposition the second is not just the runner-up but the undisputed rallying point.
“I’ll be back but I don’t know when”
From the Delphi Economic Forum, the former prime minister said “I am returning because there is no normality in the country”, but avoided saying when.“I find it difficult to say the day and time because we do not live in a normal country”, he continued, leaving political observers watching stunned.
At another point and asked about the possible name of the new party, Tsipras replied “I am tormented by the idea that we might call it Maria”, in a clear hint to Maria Karystianou, who in the polls is registering better qualitative data than he is.
At the same time, the former prime minister appearsready to launch a fierce and multi-level attack on Charilaou Trikoupis.His plan is not limited to a simple communication contest, but extends over a long period of time, aiming to deconstruct the profile of Nikos Androulakis as a credible alternative.
In addition, one of the new party’s main arguments will be that PASOK is “politically inadequate” to overturn the current situation, since despite the opportunities presented, it has failed to reap any social discontent, remaining stuck in stagnation.
At the same time, the new party seems to be opening its doors to cadres leaving Charilaou Trikoupis, a move that is not only symbolic, but aims to organically weaken the rival and strengthen the warlike climate between the two sides.
However, PASOK and Nikos Androulakis do not seem willing to remain spectators. Their own line of defence, which is rapidly turning into an attack, focuses on Alexis Tsipras’ refusal to make an honest self-criticism of his own government’s actions. For Charilaou Trikoupis, the former prime minister is a person whose past failures are preventing the formation of a serious progressive front. Indeed, PASOK’s criticism will be merciless on the “trauma” of the 2015-2019 period, attempting to convince the electorate that failures will follow Alexis Tsipras throughout time.
The stakes of this frontal clash are the capture of the privileged second place on the political map, which will automatically give the winner the moral and political advantage to lead the processes for the future of the centre-left. And while the second will most likely set the opposition’s agenda, the third will live in an absolute nightmare.
For PASOK in particular, a possible third place – and even with percentages that do not suggest a return dynamic – will immediately open the door to the Aeolus. The internal party problems, which for the moment remain below the surface because of the anticipation of the elections, will emerge with momentum.
Challenging the leadership, disagreements over the party’s strategic identity and calls for a redefinition of alliances will create an explosive cocktail that could lead to introversion and further shrinkage. It is clear that for Nikos Androulakis, second place is not just a goal, but the necessary condition to maintain control of PASOK and remain at the centre of developments.
On the other hand, Alexis Tsipras is well aware that if his new party fails to win second place, the blow will also be severe for his personal political career. The pressure he is exerting on PASOK is therefore a matter of self-preservation and at the same time an attempt to impose his own terms in the game.
The strategy of attracting former Green party members serves exactly this purpose, namely to show that his new party will become the “living” political subject that can integrate forces and create a majority current on the Left.
The loneliness of the blue summit
This conflict, however, holds dangers for both. Extreme polarizing discourse and a focus on the “enemy” within the opposition could alienate a significant portion of moderate voters, who are looking for solutions to their everyday problems, not partisan civil wars.
The image of an opposition that is reduced to personal attacks and past history, while the government retains the full initiative, may act as a boomerang. Nevertheless, the logic of “your death, my life” seems to prevail over composure, as Tsipras and Androulakis realize that the space at the top of the opposition is too narrow to fit both of them.
