The insistence of Agkeria to raise the issue anew in the Kasu region is not just another episode of Greek-Turkish tension.
It reveals a qualitative shift: from the timeless tactic of contestation to a more aggressive strategy, that of direct provocation!
The information that Turkey is considering conducting surveys even within 6 nautical miles – that is, within Greek territorial waters – leaves no room for misinterpretation.
This is no longer a “dispute”. It is a direct challenge to Greek sovereignty in the region. Thus, Kassos ceases to be yet another area where Agyra is testing Greek endurance and reactions . It is becoming a field for a more ambitious strategy, that of gradually shifting the boundaries from “contested” to “claimed”.
This element takes on even greater significance when placed in the wider context of the last few weeks. The crescendo of violations and infringements of Greek airspace, combined with increasingly aggressive statements by Turkish officials – particularly against cooperation between Greece, Cyprus and Israel – make up a picture of escalating pressure with a clear geopolitical focus. The timing is nothing if not coincidental.
The peak of tension in the Persian Gulf and the open conflict with Iran are creating an environment of generalized instability. In this context, Greece is strengthening its deterrent presence by deploying Patriot systems in the Dodecanese and Northern Greece and by sending frigates and fighter aircraft to Cyprus.
Agkeria, taken by surprise by Athens’ moves, is responding in a spasmodic manner in its own familiar, challenging way, increasing pressure where it believes there may be strategic costs. At the same time, Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric against Israel is taking on the characteristics of an ideological confrontation. Turkey is attempting to reposition itself as a leading pole in the Muslim world, capitalizing on the relative weakening of Iran.
In this context, the engagement of Greece, Cyprus and Israel is not perceived as mere cooperation, but as a “geopolitical challenge” that needs to be balanced. The emerging picture is now clear.
Turkey is not moving in a piecemeal fashion. It is applying a multi-layered model of pressure. Challenge on the ground, tension in the air, rhetorical escalation and choosing a timing that maximises uncertainty.
The critical element, however, is different. Turkey is not just testing Athens’ reactions…
It is a test of the strength of our red lines. And in times of major geopolitical upheavals, “small” crises are rarely really small!
