Energy and food at four-year highs, warns the World Bank.The crisis in Iran is driving up oil, fertilizer and food costs.
The prices of key commodities globally are expected to aincrease this year to their highest levels since 2022, as the war in Iran continues to disrupt the supply of key industrial raw materials such as oil and metals, according to the World Bank.
The World Bank’s basic commodity price index is expected to rise by about 16% this year, a it said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report today (Tuesday 28 April 2026). That would mark the first annual increase since Russia’s einvasion of Ukraine rattled energy markets and sparked global inflation.
Energy and fertilizer prices have soared to their highest levels in years since the start of the war in Iran in late February. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for about a third of global seaborne crude oil trade before the conflict, has caused a historic shock to energy and commodity markets, the bank points out.
“The war is hitting the global economy in successive waves: first through higher energy prices, then through higher food prices, and finally through higher inflation,” said Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank.
The World Bank’s energy price index is expected to rise about 24% this year, according to a baseline forecast in which the “most severe” supply shocks will end in May. Meanwhile, the average price of Brent crude oil is estimated at $86 a barrel this year, an upward revision from an estimate of $60 a barrel made in January.
Natural gas and fertilizer markets have also seen sharp price increases due to the conflict. The World Bank predicts fertilizer costs will rise 31% this year, posing a risk to farmers’ incomes and future crop yields.
This could ultimately lead to higher food costs and increase food insecurity. The closure of the strait has cut off key routes for several economies that depend on imported food, while higher fuel and transport costs are pushing up prices of other commodities. If oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, “it could drive up to 45 million additional people into acute food insecurity this year,” the World Bank said.
“The poorest people, who spend most of their income on food and fuel, will be hit hardest,” Gill said. “All this reminds us of a hard truth: war is the reverse of growth.”
