Why is Angara reigniting tensions in Greece-Turkey? The puzzle Athens is being asked to answer is open to multiple explanations, some of which are interconnected.
From the Turkish Defense Ministry’s reminder the day before yesterday of the Turkey Treaty and the interference of a Dutch ship (it was carrying out work in international waters south of Crete), to the spikes in Greece’s cooperation with third countries, the letters to the UN, and the doubling of violations in the Aegean, a multi-level escalation on Ankara’s part is being recorded.
In particular, the renewal of the Greek-French Strategic Partnership Agreement on Defense and Security Cooperation of 2021, which includes a mutual defense assistance clause, coupled with the French president’s statement that “we will be here” if Greece’s sovereignty is threatened, have provoked anger on the other side of the Aegean.
See… encirclement
The Turkish press – both sympathetic and opposition – has been breathing venom against Athens and Paris. A common refrain is that the deal has “a clear target against Turkey”, while there was no shortage of approaches that included the meeting of Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Emanuel Macron in what Ankara sees as its “encirclement” axis, which includes the Athens-Jerusalem relations and the Cyprus.
In a telling statement, the ruling AKP party’s press spokesman Omer Çelik called on third countries not to get involved in the Greek-Turkish conflict. “Let Turkey and Greece develop the ability to solve their problems through clear and transparent negotiations. Instead, Greece often resorts to side roads. It is necessary to stay on the highway. We often see that when one gets off the motorway, one falls into the ditch. There is no need to repeat the same mistake,” he asserted.
Some Turkish media attempted to present the recently signed Strategic Partnership Agreement between London and Ankara, which includes, among other things, cooperation in the defense industry, focusing on Turkey’s purchase of 20 Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft, as a counterweight to the Greek-French relationship. Influential journalist Hade Firat, who echoes the AKP’s views, envisaged the creation of a new Turkish-British security axis, which she contrasted with Greece and Cyprus’ relations with France. “It is not a coincidence. It is a mutual taking of positions,” he argued.
For Athens, it is understood that strengthening its relations with states such as France and Israel is perceived as a threat to Ankara. Also, it is clear that Turkey has never withdrawn its revisionist agenda, it just at times more or less puts forward its illegal claims. To these reasons is added the electoral one. Typically, elections (presidential and parliamentary) in Turkey should be held in May 2028. However, according to BBC Türkçe, the AKP is preparing for early elections, possibly in November 2027, in order to have Recep Tayyip Erdoğan running again.
The current president was first elected to the post in 2014 and was re-elected in 2018 and 2023. In 2017, a referendum intervened, where by a narrow margin the country’s constitution was changed from parliamentary to presidential. Continuing his second term after the constitutional conversion, the Turkish president is not eligible to run again. His options are a constitutional revision of the constitution’s two-term provision – yet he does not have the necessary number of seats – or a call for early elections by parliament. The AKP-led coalition has 326 seats in parliament, while a decision on early elections requires a majority of three-fifths of the total number of members, i.e. 360 votes.
Therefore, a defection is required from at least 34 opposition MPs (the speaker of the Turkish National Assembly, Numan Kurtulmus, is not eligible to vote). “It is considered likely that some opposition parties, other than the CHP, or some MPs who have given up hope of being nominated, as well as some independents, could be persuaded through individual pressure,” BBC Türkçe underlined.
Towards a hot summer
In this light, the Turkish government, with its eyes also on the domestic front, seems to be preparing for a hot summer in Turkish-Greek relations. After all, the AKP and Erdogan himself have come under harsh criticism for Greek foreign policy actions, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean. Hence, the Turkish president, who is entering his 25th year in power (since 2001), seems willing to use the “card” of national issues.
In any case, Athens is not unaware of the Turkish Republic’s long-standing and bipartisan revisionist agenda against Greece and Cyprus.
