Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries are meeting online today (3/5) to determine their stance on oil production.

This is the first meeting since the sudden withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates, announced last Tuesday (4/28).

The bloc has not officially commented on the withdrawal, despite the fact that the UAE was a key member and one of the countries with the potential to increase production. For this reason, the announcement that will follow is considered more crucial even than the decision itself.

According to analyst Arn Loman Rasmussen, the countries – including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman – are expected to increase quotas “by 188.000 barrels per day”.

This increase follows the pattern of the March and April decisions, except that the UAE’s share is now absent.

Despite the increases on paper, actual production does not seem to follow. The available potential is mainly in the Gulf countries, but their exports are affected by the blockade of the Sea of Hormuz by Iran following the start of the Middle East conflict.

Analyst Priya Walia points out that production from countries with quotas “fell to 27.68 million barrels per day in March”, compared to targets of 36.73 million. “a deficit of about 9 million barrels a day”.

Note that Saudi Arabia is facing export problems, Iraq, Kuwait and the EEA.

And Russia, the bloc’s second-largest producer, appears to be benefiting from high prices but is struggling to meet its quotas. Sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine and strikes by Ukrainian drones have weighed on production.

Weakened OPEC+

The UAE’s withdrawal is seen as a key development. Analyst Amena Mackre calls it “a major event”, more serious even than the withdrawal of Qatar in 2019 and Angola later.

Abu Dhabi was not only the fourth largest producer, but also had significant untapped potential, acting as a market regulation tool.

As early as 2021, “the United Arab Emirates had expressed strong dissatisfaction with its quotas”.

State-owned Adnoc aims to produce 5 million barrels per day by 2027, far exceeding the previous limit of 3.447 million.

As Francis Perrin notes, “They already have a sustainable capacity of 4.3 million barrels per day” and are seeking further growth.