Mateo Salvini’s Lega is experiencing a steep decline. According to the latest poll by Ipsos published in the Corriere della Sera on 1 May, the party registers just 5.8%, its lowest figure since becoming a national party.
Roberto Vanacci’s Futuro Nazionale, which left the League in February, is at 4.1%, “sucking votes” from the traditional core of the League. This is a historic turning point: from 34% in the 2019 European elections and 8.8% in the 2022 parliamentary elections, the party has lost millions of voters and risks becoming a regional player.
The main cause of the recent collapse is Vanazzi’s departure. The general, with his book that sold hundreds of thousands of copies and his hard-line positions on immigration, gender and “Italian identity”, embodied the most radical part of the base.
His departure was not accidental: Vanacci accused the League of backtracking from positions on Ukraine and demilitarisation to refusing to repeal the Fornero law on pensions. His new party is attracting voters who believe Salvini “softened” in the governmentMeloni
However, the decline has deeper roots. From 2022, the League is the smallest partner in a government where the Fratelli d’Italia dominates with 26%-29%. Successes on immigration and the economy are attributed to Meloni, while Salvini, as infrastructure minister, is constantly criticised for train delays and lack of progress on the Ponte sullo Stretto. At the same time, the party has lost its identity as a “Northern” protester: it has lost regions like Sardinia and Umbria.
In addition, Lega has paid the price for the “nationalisation”, the opening up across the country, attempted by Salvini: it has lost votes in the North without gaining a solid base in the South. The internal tensions, with Luca Giaia and local actors, reinforce the image of a party in a leadership crisis. Today Lega is sixth in power, behind even Aleanza Verdi-Sinistra in some polls.
The decline is not just numerical. It is the collapse of a model that relied on Salvini as a “people’s general”. Without a radical renewal of strategy and without escaping the shadow of Meloni,the League risks becoming the historical footprint of an era that is over.
