The November midterm elections are critical to the political balance in the US. The Republicans currently control both chambers (217-213 in the House and 53-47 in the Senate), but the latest data show signs of a flip.
The Democrats maintain a clear lead to retake the House, while the balance in the Senate hangs in the balance. According to the latest data, Democrats lead in the generic ballot by 6 percentage points, the highest of the year. In the betting,Democrats have a 79%-83% chance of taking the House, while the battle is fierce for the Senate (about 50%-56% in favor of Republicans). It’s possible that the distance T. Fetterman gets from Democrats could prove decisive.
The importance of the election is huge. In Trump’s second term, the Congress will determine how to advance legislation on the economy, immigration and foreign policy. A Democratic House would act as a powerful brake, while any loss of the Senate as well would drastically limit executive power. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections. Since the start of the war in Iran, polls have shown steady pressure. Immediately after the raids, approval for Trump’s policies fell to 34%-37% (historic lows), while t61%-66% of Americans disapprove of his involvement and handling of the war.
The disruption of navigation in the Seaway of Hormuz and soaring gasoline prices have intensified concern about the cost of living, the most important issue for voters. Republicans hope for a quick end to the war and an economic recovery, but so far the war is acting as a catalyst for the opposition. The 2026 midterm elections will be decided by whether the Iran “plumb line” remains or is mitigated by November.
