The polls capture a reality that is much simpler and much more… disturbing for all those who continue to invest in the “collapse Mitsotakis“.
And most importantly, they capture in time what many people refuse to see, despite the fact that there can always be “hidden” currents that only appear at the ballot box. After all, pollsters have made it clear several times that this is a snapshot of the moment, not a prediction of the future.
“Sorry, wrong”
Remember, moreover, that even Alexis Tsipras, who for several years had questioned their validity, was forced after repeated defeats to admit to Dimitris Mavros that “sorry, we were wrong”. “It honors him. I wish he had said it publicly, but it still honors him. He apologized for all the time before,” the MRB CEO revealed in 2019.
A few years later, companies now accused of being systemic were counting the Syriza government’s wear and tear on the 2024 European elections. They are the ones that depicted ND’s fall from 41% to 28%, despite the fact that N. Androulakis last February, like another Alexis Tsipras, claimed (in Kontra) that “the polls all agree for ND, but for the other parties they give some strange things”.
They are the ones that in the 2019 elections showed New Democracy in the vote estimate between 36% and 41%, with a clear lead and a picture of self-reliance, while Syriza was hovering between 25% and 31%. The final result on 7 July almost completely confirmed the polling picture.
Today, however, the reality is much simpler and much more… disturbing for all those who continue to invest politically in Mitsotakis’ “collapse”. The latest polls show that the government is recording (small) losses, but the opposition is unable to put together a convincing alternative power proposal.
It is typical that New Democracy still maintains a double-digit lead over the second party. Kyriakos Mitsotakis continues to dominate the suitability for prime minister. And most importantly, the demand for political stability remains stronger than the desire for a “punitive vote”.
At the same time, PASOK, despite harsh rhetoric and an attempt to appear as the main spokesperson for anti-government discontent, remains stuck with its toxic discourse creating negative impressions. The polls show that not only is it not substantially narrowing the gap with ND (which remains in double score), but it risks coming under pressure from the new political ventures that are taking shape, such as that of Maria Karustianou.
At the same time, Tsipras’s potential party is expected to squeeze ratings again, when party officials such as Charis Kastanidis have already chosen a camp. The former prime minister appears to still retain influence in parts of the centre-left and the wider left, creating nervousness in Charilaou Trikoupis.
As far as the picture in the so-called “anti-systemic vote” is concerned, while the impression has been cultivated by various centres that a possible move by Samaras or Karystianos would supposedly cause a strategic problem for ND, the polls show exactly the opposite. The reservoirs from which they draw are mainly those of the far-right and the protest vote.
The bet of the centre
The real bet for Maximou and Kyriakos Mitsotakis is to reconnect with the moderate and centrist voters who were alienated in the European elections. That is, those who had given 41% in 2023 and come from various social groups – such as the middle class, various professionals, pro-European voters, people in the primary sector – who chose stability and economic normality.
