The developments in the last 24 hours around the conversations US-China, on the occasion of the visit of Trump to Pekino, are not just another diplomatic mobility.

They constitute the clearest indication that the global balance of power is changing at a pace that Europe is unable to follow and even more so to influence.

If Washington and Beijing reach even a partial agreement, it will not be just a de-escalation of a trade or technological confrontation…

It will be about forging a new “compromise”between a dipole, where the two superpowers will determine the rules of the game, leaving Europe in an observer role.

The reality is harsh, in the critical sectors of the 21st century (artificial intelligence, high tech, defence, industrial production, energy chains) the EU is not leading… It is lagging behind!

The big technology giantsare almost exclusively located in the US and China. The critical supply chains are controlled by them.

And investment in innovation is moving at speeds that European bureaucracies cannot compete.
The problem is not just economic… It is deeply geopolitical! Europe is stuck between three realities:

First, an America that – especially under Trump – sees Europe more as a burden than a strategic partner. The logic of “America First” leaves little room for equal relations. On the contrary, it reinforces the tendency for bilateral arrangements with major powers, bypassing Brussels.

Second, a China that is strategically consistent in building global power networks (from technology to infrastructure to energy), seeing Europe primarily as a market rather than as an equal geopolitical player.

And, third, a Russia, led by Putin, with which Europe is in open confrontation. This conflict is not only military or energy. It is strategic and dramatically limits the room for European manoeuvre.

In this context, Trump’s attempt to open channelswith Moscowis of particular importance. This is not just a move to normalize relations. It is a classic geopolitical balancing act.

Washington is attempting to prevent a deeper Russia-China convergence by disrupting a potentially powerful Eurasian axis.
If this succeeds, the US will have gained strategic space; if it fails, China will further strengthen its position. In any case, Europe is not on the decision table, but on the menu.

The most worrying fact is that the European lag does not seem to be a cyclical one… It is structural! Energy dependence, despite efforts to diversify, remains.

The defence industry is fragmented. Technological innovation lags behind. And above all, a unified strategic vision of where Europe wants to stand on the new world map is lacking.

While the US and China are moving in terms of “grand strategies”, Europe seems stuckin internal balances, regulations and political compromises. The question, then, is not whether Europe is in danger of being marginalised. This is already happening.

The real question is whether it still has the time – and more importantly the will – to react before its role is definitively reduced to that of an economic space without geopolitical power.

In a world returning to the logic of the great powers, those who don’t play the game,are merely subjected to its rules!