Greece is preparing to send another strong signal of credibility to international markets and major rating agencies, by proceeding in June with a new early repayment of public debt of 6.9 billion euros.

The move is part of the last loan the country received under the first memorandum and is part of the government’s overall strategy to gradually de-escalate public debt.

It is worth noting that this development is considered particularly important, as it reflects the improved fiscal picture of the Greek economy and further strengthens investor confidence in the country. At the same time, Athens seeks to maintain the positive momentum that has developed in recent years, with the main objective of continuously strengthening its credit image.

The strategy for debt de-escalation

The early repayment of 6.9 billion euros is another step in the economic policy plan to gradually reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. According to estimates, Greek government debt is expected to fall to 130.3% of GDP by 2027, while the next major target is to fall below the 120% of GDP in 2029.

In fact, 2026 is expected to be a landmark year for the Greek economy, as for the first time in many years Greece will not have the highest public debt as a percentage of GDP in the European Union. Specifically, and according to forecasts, Greece will fall to 136.8% of GDP, while Italy is estimated to move higher, at 138.6% of GDP.

At the same time, the government is considering, the possibility of another early repayment towards the end of the year. If the plan goes ahead, the next move will involve part of the 110 billion euro loan Greece received from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) during the second memorandum.

With the new repayment in June, the country will have repaid a total of about €28 billion of the €52.3 billion of the last loan under the first memorandum, reflecting a steady effort to reduce the debt burden.

Growth and surpluses support the plan

According to estimates, early repayment would lead to an annual debt reduction of around 2.5% of GDP in the summer, a development that is seen as very positive for the overall economic picture.

The strong growth of the Greek economy, which is expected to move close to 2% again this year, despite international geopolitical pressures and the impact of the war in Iran, plays a crucial role in creating fiscal space. High primary surpluses, combined with the policy of curbing tax evasion, are the key factors underpinning the country’s fiscal stability.

These positive performances are already recorded in the reports of foreign rating agencies, which acknowledge the improvement in economic indicators and the country’s consistent progress in debt management.

Looking ahead to the next ratings

The economic staff considers the next round of ratings by international agencies to be particularly important, with the aim of new upgrades within the investment grade.

The start will be on September 4 with the rating of DBRS, followed on September 18 by Moody’s and Scope. On October 23, Standard & Poor’s will announce its verdict, while the cycle will be completed on November 6 with a rating from Fitch.