The debate over when and how the war will end in Ukraine is dynamically returning to the fore as Western analysts and military officials appear increasingly convinced that a de facto end to the conflict is approaching.

On the sidelines of the Kiev Security Forum in late April, experts from Western countries presented assessments that directly link the course of the war to political developments in the US and especially to the November midterm elections.

Speculation of a new Russian draft

Scenarios have been growing lately that Vladimir Putin is considering a new wave of draft, as happened in the fall of 2022. These speculations are mainly based on the stagnation on the front, but also on reports from Ukrainian military officials, which were recently cited by the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

However, the head of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University, Evelyne Farkas, appears skeptical of that possibility. She believes that the strained state of the Russian economy is acting as a deterrent to such a large mobilization.

Ukraine is stronger than in the past

Meanwhile, former US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Curt Volcker, believes that Kiev is in a stronger position today than in previous periods of the war. As he notes, the Ukrainian side has managed to significantly reduce its dependence on Western weapons systems.

According to his estimate, Ukraine can now meet 60% to 70% of its military needs without foreign assistance, which allows it to maintain resilience even if the US reduces military support through European allies.

Trump’s pressure and Russian conditions

Volodymyr Zelensky has already warned that by the fall he expects more intense pressure from the Donald Trump administration. The US president is reportedly seeking acceptance of Russian ceasefire conditions, with a key demand being the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from areas of Donbass still controlled by Kiev.

However, Evelyn Farkas believes Ukraine will be able to withstand these pressures without retreating strategically.

Geopolitical developments and the Iranian factor

The same analyst even links the developments in Ukraine to the tensions in the Persian Gulf and the Iran front. He believes the crisis could de-escalate before the summer, with the Hormuz Strait reopening normally.

At the same time, he thinks it likely that the US will then turn to Cuba, seeking, as Donald Trump has said, regime change in Havana. According to Farkas, such a scenario would not increase pressure on Kiev, but instead would further weaken Russia because of its historical ties with Cuba.

The US election as a turning point

Both Evelyn Farkas and Curt Falker believe that the midterm elections in the US will be a decisive turning point for the course of the war.

Farkas argues, “A negative result for Trump is enough to put pressure on the US government to continue supporting Ukraine and NATO.”

The two analysts believe that a possible weakening of Donald Trump and the Republican Party could lead to continued Western support for Kiev.

Russia’s economy and the huge losses

For his part, the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, stresses that the war is “difficult” to end cleanly on the battlefield.

Despite the fact that Russian forces have suffered heavy losses, he stresses that the Russian army remains “strong”. Nevertheless, he believes that the pressures on Russia’s economy may eventually lead Moscow to a peace deal.

In the same vein, Curt Falker notes: “The situation in Russia has deteriorated significantly and continues to deteriorate,” predicting that time is working against Vladimir Putin.

When will the war end?

Experts do not agree, however, on when the real turning point of the war will be reached. Curt Falker estimates that it could happen as late as 2026, giving odds of “over 50%”.

In contrast, Evelyne Farkas appears more conservative in terms of timing, believing that 2027 will be the year in which “the Ukrainians will emerge victorious” in this conflict.

First published: dw