“If in a few hours we became the official opposition, in a few months we will become the government.” With this statement, Alexis Tsipras chose to open the first public event of the ELAS in Nice.
But he didn’t stop there. He stated with confidence that he can defeat Kyriakos Mitsotakis even on the first Sunday. His desire to return to power is entirely legitimate. However, his belief that a 14% poll rating is a stepping stone to the Maximos Mansion is more reminiscent of the well-known political delusions of the past than a serious assessment of reality.
The former prime minister seems to believe that whoever becomes the official opposition in the polls is one step away from government. If that were true, PASOK would already be governing the country. It hasn’t been long since Harilaou Trikoupi recorded poll numbers above 20%, far higher than the 14% that is now being presented as a political triumph by ELAS. Back then, in fact, it was leaving behind SYRIZA led by his chosen one, Alexis Tsipras, Stefanos Kasselakis, and many were quick to speak of a new center of power. At the same time, we were also hearing the other opposition leader predict an election victory, even if by a single vote. The triumphalism was rampant. The ballot box, however, had a different opinion. In the European elections, the powerful Nikolas managed to lose even to Kasselakis. Today, that supposed momentum has been relegated to the dustbin of political history.
Even more striking is Tsipras’s certainty, if one recalls the track record of his predictions. In 2019, he assured everyone that there wasn’t even a one-in-a-million chance he would lose to Kyriakos Mitsotakis. A few weeks later, he lost by a margin of ten points. In 2023, he claimed that the polls did not reflect reality and that SYRIZA was on a roll toward victory. The result was a historic defeat by twenty points. Two elections, two completely wrong assessments.
But there is another factor that makes the former prime minister’s optimism seem out of touch with reality. Standing opposite him is the man who has defeated him in every election in which they have faced off. Kyriakos Mitsotakis possesses a political advantage that cannot be manufactured through spin. He is viewed by a large segment of the public as consistent and trustworthy. In contrast, Alexis Tsipras is the politician who introduced the word “somersault” into the international political lexicon. This is not merely a matter of different political trajectories. It is a matter of two completely different relationships with credibility.
Alexis Tsipras has every right to dream of returning to power. What he is not entitled to do is present wishful thinking as political analysis. Polls may offer temporary excitement to party headquarters. But the elections have already delivered their verdict. In 2019, Mitsotakis defeated Tsipras. In 2023, he defeated him again—and by a landslide. To date, every time the two men have faced off at the polls, the winner has been the same.
That is why, before the celebrations over the 14% begin, it may be worth a reminder: Polls produce official opposition parties, but it is the ballot box that produces governments. And to date, Kyriakos Mitsotakis has not lost a single head-to-head matchup against Alexis Tsipras.
