This perception emerged as a view from the very moment the two new parties were founded, and the first round of polls recorded significant changes in the percentages of all forces of the opposition and serious shifts.
In panel discussions, the view was expressed that the Prime Minister’s Office is pushing A. Tsipras to appear in second place, because it is choosing an opponent. In the most extreme version, in fact, polling firms appeared to be acting almost as if on a special assignment to rank New Democracy in first place and, at the same time, A. Tsipras in second. In short, we’re talking about political nonsense laced with a bit of conspiracy theory. But we live in Greece. We don’t have to take everything at face value.
Why on earth would New Democracy want to promote A. Tsipras? Did they feel such a great threat from the second-place party until a month ago PASOK, against which it consistently scored twice as high in voting intentions and suitability for prime minister, while K. Mitsotakis’s approval rating was four times that of N. Androulakis?
However, even if we were to engage in this entire discussion and take it seriously, how would he fare against A. Tsipras? These things don’t happen in real life, but only in fantasies and are usually used as an excuse for weakness. A. Tsipras moved into second place as soon as the ELAS appeared—and, in fact, with a simultaneous drop in PASOK’s support of 3%–4%, because, evidently, there were—and still are—social and political forces that realized that no political force within the opposition could threaten K. Mitsotakis and that there was a lack of leadership capable of doing any better.
That is why, if anyone gave A. Tsipras, it’s because of PASOK’s failure to seize the opportunity it had—and, of course, the failure of the leadership of SYRIZA and the New Left. Can A. Tsipras do it, and will he be able to? We’ll see, but first place is locked up for New Democracy, and other factors are at play right now. The exact percentage of its vote is still being determined, as well as whether it will be able to form a government on its own.
A. Tsipras started out with 15%–15.5%, and in the meantime, his numbers seem to be rising rather than falling, contrary to what many—as usual—are rushing to predict. He founded a new party, and so far he is trying to establish it in the public consciousness by introducing new faces—some of whom may survive and endure, while others may not.
In any case, in any case, some of them are quite serious individuals, particularly from the fields of industry and science. As long as it maintains this strict, hardline stance toward former SYRIZA leaders, it’s likely to gain ground, because it comes across as convincing that it is indeed creating something new. Is that enough? No.
Because a large percentage of the population— 65% at the very least—doesn’t want to hear about him, recalling his previous track record both in opposition and in government. His key decisions have been recorded negatively on the hard drive of collective memory. No, because what is new in politics stems primarily from ideas, proposals, the substance of the policy—a policy we expect to hear about, since there have been various statements recently that smacked of the past.
Nor is it because there are forces, leaders from the broader former SYRIZA camp, who, having been excluded, will likely react in some way, and we may see some consequences from these reactions. Finally, no, because other opposition forces, seeing their support shifting toward the new party, will fight back. They will attack; they will do something—or at least they’ll have to.
So Alexis Tsipras’s start was encouraging; it seems he may see further gains, but it would be a mistake to believe that everything in politics proceeds in a linear fashion. No party can rise or fall indefinitely, and in any case, to win over a society that is very slow to react— given what it has experienced since the memoranda and amid major crises, you must earn its trust and its belief that you can do positive things for people’s lives and the country’s future. None of this is easy, even if we set aside the factor of unforeseen events and circumstances that often determine how things unfold.
We have a long way to go before the elections to be able to lock in tentative developments, although it currently appears that we are likely heading toward a certain degree of polarization that will put the parties—especially those in third place and below, and indeed starting from the first Sunday—in a very difficult position. Such a scenario obviously suits both K. Mitsotakis and A. Tsipras for different reasons, as it suggests that Tsipras is likely “securing” second place.
However, let’s wait and see. We will witness many developments and many political processes. The road to the elections is long, and the coming period will be politically intense. There’s no reason to rush to predict the future.
* The article was published on Liberal.gr
