Eurostat: fiscal outperformance, a defence against the crisis – Positive forecasts for Greece

Positive news on the economy is expected for Greece next Wednesday (4/22), when the final figures for the primary surplus for 2025 will be released.

This data will form the basis for subsequent interventions to support citizens against the impact of the crisis in the Middle East.

On April 22, announcements from Eurostat and ELSTAT are expected to confirm a fourth consecutive year of exceeding targets. Already, the finance minister, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, has foreshadowed an upward revision.

Internationally reported estimates suggest the surplus may move closer to 4.8%-4.9% of GDP, higher than the initial target of 3.7%. At the same time, there are indications that this positive trend will continue into 2026, surpassing the target of 2.8%.

In the same vein, the International Monetary Fund in its report on Greece ( Fiscal Monitor) this week predicted high primary surpluses for 2025 and for the next six years and a dynamic reduction in debt to 110,9% of the AERP at the end of 2031 from 145.7% in 2025. In terms of the primary surplus, the IMF estimates it to be 4.4% in 2025, 3.8% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 and 2028, respectively.

A crucial factor for this picture is the growth of the Greek economy. Despite pressures from the energy crisis and the war raging in the Middle East, increased revenues – especially from the fight against tax evasion – are boosting public coffers.

Based on these facts, the government is planning the continuation of the support measures. The aim is to address increases in energy and inflation.

However, the European spending rule will also be taken into account when determining the available fiscal space. The scope of the new interventions will depend on this.

Two two support packages have already been activated. They include caps on profit margins on fuel and basic goods, as well as subsidies such as the fuel pass and aid for fuel.