Final data for 2025 from ELSTAT clearly illustrate the country’s fiscal trajectory. The protational surplus stood at 4.9% of GDP, i.e. €12.13 billion, exceeding the target of 3.7% and generating a surplus of close to €3 billion.
This is a development that the government is trying to turn into a political credibility argumentagainst both markets and the domestic political scene, at a time when war has already disrupted the global economic balance.
This outperformance effectively nullifies the rhetoric PASOK and Syriazas about “fiscal fatigue” and expose those who discounted derailment or easing. Instead of divergence, discipline is being recorded. Instead of lags, overruns. And above all, instead of sketchy benefits, management that produces measurable results.
The economic staff insist that this picture is not syndicated, but the result of a steady policy choice, with revenue boosting and spending under control.
In this environment, the government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis chooses to move with a dual focus. On the one hand, it maintains fiscal discipline, on the other hand it uses part of the surplus for targeted interventions. The €500 million package of eight support measures is along these lines, with a focus on precision and the most pressured social groups, such as families, pensioners, farmers and tenants.
Window of flexibility
The Economic Staff and the environment of the Minister of National Economy, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, believe that a window of flexibility may be opened by the Commission in the coming period. If this is combined with international developments, such as a new phase of monetary easing due to geopolitical tensions, then the room for manoeuvre widens considerably.
In this scenario, the interventions to be presented at the Thanksgiving International Fair cannot be ruled out to move up to €2.5 billion or even higher, turning the surplus into a powerful policy tool. This is an option that, it is stressed, will not come into conflict with fiscal stability, but will be based precisely on it.
At the same time, the first quarter 2026 data further reinforce the government’s narrative. The primary surplus came in at 4.393 billion euros, exceeding the target by €1.66 billion, while the overall balance recorded a surplus of €1.49 billion instead of a projected deficit. Continuing on this path creates additional fiscal space, estimated at close to €800 million for 2026.
At the same time, interventions onprivate debt, such as lifting conditional seizures and strengthening regulations, attempt to decompress households and professionals without disturbing the balance of public finances.
The political clash is inevitable in the run-up to the elections. The government is attempting to draw a clear dividing line, insisting that the surplus is not a field for uncontrolled benefits, but a tool for stability and perspective. On the flip side, pressure for more generalised aid is intensifying, reinforcing the political dilemma of the coming months.
The government agrees that the task is twofold. On the one hand, to maintain the credibility that has been built up and, at the same time, to demonstrate that this stability can be translated into tangible benefits for society. That is where the real political weight of numbers and elections will be decided.
