The oil prices are adjusted after the failure of US-Iran negotiations and concerns about disruptions to flows through the Hormuz Strait.

International energy marketsare in intense turmoil, as escalating geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and the failure to restart diplomatic contacts between US and Iran add to fears of possible disruptions to global oil supply. The climate of concern is being reinforced by developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy corridor for international trade, leading to strong upward pressure on crude prices as investors predict a more constrained and volatile supply environment in the coming months.

Crude oil prices moved higher on Monday as efforts to restart a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran collapsed again, intensifying concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market tightens daily

The international benchmark Brent contract for June delivery gained nearly 3% to close at $108.23 per barrel. At the same time, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery rose nearly 2% to $96.37 a barrel.

“Oil is moving stronger today following the failure of efforts to resume US-Iran talks, which dashes hopes for an immediate resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, said in a note.

As he added, “the lack of progress means the market is tightening further every day, forcing oil prices to reprice higher.”

The Forecast

At the same time, Goldman Sachs revised up its oil price estimates. According to the US bank’s analysts, restoring exports through the Strait of Hormuz and restoring production in the Gulf will take longer than originally estimated.

Goldman Sachs now predicts Brent will average $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year, up from a previous forecast of $80. For WTI, the new estimate raises the average to $83 from $75 previously.

Citigroup appears even more pessimistic, with analysts at Citigroup estimating that Brent could shoot up to $150 per barrel if disruptions to oil flows continue through to the end of June.

Climate of uncertainty

Despite the climate of uncertainty, Iran has reportedly submitted a new proposal to the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while proposing to postpone talks on its nuclear program, according to a report by Axios citing a US official and two sources with knowledge of the talks.

However, Donald Trump on Saturday cancelled plans to send US special envoy Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, Pakistan, for negotiations with Tehran.

“Too much time has been wasted on travel and there is too much work to be done. In addition, there is tremendous internal conflict and confusion in their leadership,” Trump wrote on the Truth Social platform.

“No one knows who is in charge, including themselves. We have all the cards, they have none. If they want to talk, all they have to do is call,” he added.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Islamabad over the weekend, where he had contacts only with Pakistani officials before leaving the country.

“No meeting has been scheduled between Iran and the US,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a late Friday post.