The threats of tariff increases from the US and the reaction from ACEA bring car trade between the European Union and the United States to a critical crossroads.

The Transatlantic trade relationship in the automotive sector is entering one of the most critical phases of the last decade, as the decision of the Donald Trump to increase tariffs on European cars and trucks to 25% threatens to upset the balance in a market worth billions. With the United States being the second most important export market for the European Union, and with the European automotive industry maintaining a clear trade surplus, this development is not just another trade dispute, but a potential rearrangement of the global production geography. The stakes are not just economic, but deeply strategic, as they touch the core of industrial policy, investment and Europe’s competitiveness.

The US president’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imported European vehicles comes at a time already burdened by a slowdown in trade, and is accompanied by a clear message: anyone who produces within the US is fully exempt from tariffs. At the same time, ACEA figures capture the extent of Europe’s dependence on the US market: nearly 670,000 vehicles were exported in 2025, worth over €30 billion, with a clear trade surplus in favour of the EU. At the same time, the ACEA itself, ahead of the crucial EU-US negotiations, warns of the need for an immediate agreement, calling for a rapid conclusion of the trilateral procedures to ensure benefits for the industry. The trifecta – tariffs, trade figures, institutional pressure – is setting a scenery of increasing tension.

In this environment, the essence of the conflict is not just in the numbers, but in the clash of two different economic models: on the one hand, the exporting power of Europe and on the other, the protectionist industrial policy of the US. This development opens a broader chapter for the future of the automotive industry, which extends far beyond tariffs.

Trump’s protectionist strategy

The increase in tariffs is not a piecemeal decision, but is part of a coherent strategy to repatriate industrial production. The logic is simple and hard: companies that want access to the US market at no cost must invest within it. It is a model that shifts the focus from free trade to controlled access.

This policy is not unprecedented, but in the current context it is becoming more intense because of the energy crisis, the restructuring of supply chains and the transition to electrification. The US is attempting to capitalise on these changes by offering an environment that favours domestic investment while making imports more expensive.

European dependence on the US market

The figures are telling: the US absorbs 18.4% of the value of European car exports. It is a high-value market, with a focus on premium models, where European brands dominate. This means that the impact of the tariffs will not just be quantitative, but also qualitative.

The European car industry relies heavily on its ability to export high value-added vehicles. Tariffs hurt precisely this model, increasing costs for the final consumer and reducing the competitiveness of European products.

Electric mobility and geopolitics: a new field of conflict

It is particularly interesting that electric vehicles occupy a similar share of both EU exports and imports from the US. However, Europe maintains a significant lead in absolute terms. This means that the imposition of tariffs also affects the transition to electrification.

The US is attempting to create a protected ecosystem for electric vehicle production by strengthening domestic companies and attracting investment. Europe, on the other hand, risks losing some of its momentum if it does not react in a coordinated way.

ACEA’s warning: time zero for Europe

The ACEA’s intervention is a clear sign of concern about developments. The call for a swift conclusion of the EU-US agreement shows that the industry understands the risk of losing competitiveness.

Delay in decision-making could prove disastrous, as companies need a clear regulatory framework to plan their investments. Otherwise, the transfer of production to the US may accelerate.

Trade decline: the harbinger of a crisis

The decline in the value of exports by more than 20% in 2025 cannot be ignored. While part of this decline is due to cyclical factors, such as the slowdown in the global economy, it cannot be ruled out as an indication of deeper changes.

The imposition of tariffs may accelerate this trend, leading to a further decline in trade and restructuring of markets.

The great dilemma

The European automotive industry faces a strategic dilemma: to continue to rely on its export model or to invest in production within the US. Each option has costs and risks.

Transferring production involves high investment but ensures market access. Conversely, keeping production in Europe preserves the domestic industrial base but increases exposure to trade risks.

The critical crossroads

Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs is not just another trade move, but a strategic intervention with broader implications. Combined with trade data and pressure from ACEA, it highlights the need for immediate and coordinated decisions at the European level.

The next period will not only determine EU-US trade relations, but also Europe’s place in the global automotive landscape.