Growth and surpluses: the two strong “cards” of the Greek economy

Two key elements seem to strengthen the position of the Greek economy against the consequences of the war in Iran.

The first is a higher rate of growth than the rest of Europe. The second is the strong primary surpluses, which allow the public debt to continue to decline.

This is the picture painted by the European Commission’s spring forecasts, published later this week. Despite the fact that the Commission revised down its forecasts for the EU and eurozone economy due to the energy shock from the Middle East conflict, Greece still outperformed on critical indicators.

Higher growth than the eurozone

According to these new estimates, the Greek economy will continue to outperform the rest of Europe in both 2026 and 2027.

The Commission forecasts that Greece’s growth rate will be 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. At the same time, average growth in the EU is estimated at 1.1% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027.

Eurozone forecasts are even lower. Growth is expected to reach only 0.9% in 2026, compared to a previous estimate of 1.2%, while for 2027 the rate is estimated at 1.2%.

European economies are under strong pressure from rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. However, Greece continues to present a more resilient picture.

Positive picture on the fiscal front as well

The country’s picture is also better on the fiscal front. Greece remains on a path of surpluses, while most European economies continue to record high deficits.

Based on the forecasts of the Commission, the general government budget balance will remain in surplus in 2026, at 0.8% of GDP, down from 1.7% in 2025. For 2027, the surplus is estimated at 0.6% of GDP.

On the counterpart in the EU. the deficit is projected to rise to 3.5% of GDP in 2026 from 3.1% in 2025, while in 2027 it is expected to be 3.6%.

In the eurozone, the deficit is estimated to reach 3,3% in 2026 from 2.9% in 2025 and will rise further to 3.5% of GDP in 2027.

Debt continues to fall

The public debt is following a different path. While in many European economies the ratios are increasing, in Greece the deceleration continues.

The Commission estimates that Greek debt will fall from 146,1% of GDP in 2025 to 140.7% in 2026, while in 2027 it will be further reduced to 134.4% of GDP.

In contrast, in the EU. debt is projected to rise from 82.8% of GDP in 2025 to 84.2% in 2026 and to 85.3% in 2027.

The picture is similar in the eurozone, where average debt is estimated to rise from 88,7% of GDP in 2025 to 90.2% in 2026 and to 91.2% in 2027.

Greece’s goal remains to reduce debt below 120% of GDP by 2029. At the same time, another major change is expected to take place this year: Greece is projected to cease to be the most indebted country in the eurozone, a position that is expected to be passed to Italy.