Greece recorded a significant improvement in its electricity trade balance in the first quarter of 2026, according to data from ELSTAT.

The surplus increased to three times the level of the corresponding period in 2025, while in volume terms net energy exports almost quadrupled.

The increased availability of electricity is a key factor in boosting exports, but also one of the reasons Ministry of Environment and Energy officials are cautiously optimistic about the price path in the coming months, despite an expected rise in demand due to the summer.

Power exports soar

According to ELSTAT data, the value of electricity exports stood at 459 million euros in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 343 million euros in the same period of 2025.

At the same time, imports narrowed significantly, reaching 118.7 million euros, down from 232.3 million euros a year ago.

As a result, the electricity trade surplus reached 340 million euros, compared with 111 million euros in 2025.

Although some of the exports take place during midday hours, when production from photovoltaics creates surplus energy and prices on the wholesale market are even zero, the overall economic benefit remains significant. The export activity extends throughout the 24-hour period.

Sources at the Ministry of Energy point out that Greece exports electricity to Bulgaria on an almost permanent basis, with exports recorded 96% of the month in May. In fact, the largest quantities are channeled during the evening hours rather than during sunshine.

The picture becomes even more significant when compared to 2019, when the electricity balance was in deficit by about 400 million for the country.

Net energy exports quadrupled

According to Green Tank analyses, net exports from the Greek electricity system reached 3,442 gigawatt-hours, compared to 858 gigawatt-hours in the corresponding period in 2025.

Significantly, net exports in the first quarter already exceeded the total net exports recorded in the entire 2025.

The increased participation of Renewable Energy Sources in the energy mix played a decisive role.

Production from photovoltaics increased by 31.4%, production from wind farms rose by 37.2%, while hydroelectric projects recorded an impressive rise of 282%, thanks to increased rainfall and water supplies in reservoirs.

The five reasons to be optimistic about summer prices

Despite the expected increase in consumption in the summer months, officials at the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources believe there are factors that can act as stabilising factors for the market.

First, prices on the wholesale market remain close to last year’s levels. In April they were at 89 euros per megawatt-hour, while in May they also hovered around 89 euros, compared to 81.9 euros last year. At the same time, no extreme increases are observed during the evening hours.

Second, the first battery storage units have already been integrated into the system. Currently about 150 MW are participating in the market, and by the summer their capacity is expected to reach 500-600 MW.

Batteries help both reduce generation cuts from renewables and limit the use of natural gas plants during peak hours.

According to Green Tank, renewable energy cuts totaled 410 GWh in the first quarter, double the year-ago figure, and by the end of May had already reached 1.35 TWh.

Thirdly, during the summer months both demand and production from photovoltaics increase in parallel, which helps maintain the balance in the market.

Fourth, Greece is now experiencing lower electricity prices compared to neighbouring markets such as Bulgaria, Romania and Italy. This development boosts exports and reduces the need to import more expensive energy.

Fifth, the high water reserves in hydro plants offer additional flexibility to the system, reducing dependence on gas plants and helping to contain production costs.

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