No one can know exactly when the elections will take place, but in keeping with Greek traditions, polarization, toxicity, and negativity have been present for quite some time now. Let’s imagine what will happen as we approach the final month or two before the elections.

A preliminary observation: In recent years, the party system has generated far more noise than society can bear, which appears to be more level-headed and rational.

All surveys show that society wants two simple things: stability and to see an improvement in living standards and in the overall quality of daily life. That is why it prioritizes stability over protest as a voting criterion and prefers self-sufficient governments as its first choice. Society, in short, is showing realism and signs of maturity that stand in stark contrast to what we experienced a few years ago.

This is a factor that the Opposition must take into account above all else. Does it? No. On the contrary, it has a tendency to dismiss everything, to paint a picture of a devastated country, to hurl every implausible accusation at the Prime Minister, and to show an inability to pose any substantive dilemma. No matter how you look at it, the constant slogan “let’s get rid of Mitsotakis” is not even a dilemma, much less an alternative proposal for governance.

Because OK. We’ve ousted Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who by all indications will come in first anyway. And then what? There is no answer for what comes next.

The PASOK says, for example, that it will not cooperate with New Democracy, but it does not say with whom it will form this famous progressive government, and from what I understand, it is not seeking a majority government. It appears to be seeking a blank check without specifying with whom it might cooperate. His aides say with no one. It looks as though he is appearing without a role in the post-election developments, and this is extremely dangerous for him. So he has no alternative.

A. Tsipras is looking for ways to break through the 17% ceiling that pollsters —at least at this moment—see him at, and obviously, to gain ground, he needs to make a strong inroads among PASOK voters, hoping that if he succeeds and at the same time New Democracy shows signs of even a slight decline following the founding of Samaras’s party, it will create a sense that “the game is on.” Of course, it remains to be seen how PASOK will react, what its defenses will be, and, in any case, how New Democracy will respond. There are, in other words, many “ifs” and “whens” in this reasoning, and the most likely scenario is that it will aim to come in a clear second, preparing for 2030.

Ms. Karystianou made sure she didn’t stumble when answering tough questions and made it clear that she wants a majority government. Whether anyone can believe such a political goal is, of course, another matter.

The KKE is seeking a popular majority for an “different” socialist government, while the other parties are currently working to heal their serious wounds, which became apparent in the first polls following the founding of the two new parties. The government’s inability to present a proposal is more than evident.

But let’s be clear. Given the current situation, will the New Democracy will manage to form a self-sufficient government, or will no government be formed at all without New Democracy?

In the latest opinion poll for Action 24, the percentages and seats were: New Democracy 30.5% (123), ELAS 15.5% (46), ELPIDA 12.6% (37), PASOK 10.5% (31), KKE 6.5% (19), Hellenic Solution 5.9% (17), Freedom Course 5% (14).

What do these figures indicate? They confirm the basic finding and simultaneously point to a seven-party Parliament, which affects the distribution of seats. If we look at the average vote share based on the last 12 polls since the founding of the two new parties, the figures are: New Democracy 29.33% (118), ELAS 15.23% (47), PASOK 11.16% (35), ELPIDA 10.91% (34), KKE 6.73% (21), Hellenic Solution 6.71% (20), Plevsi 5.05% (15), Voice of Reason 3.4% (10).

It appears that the differences are very small, but there is a somewhat different distribution of seats. The reason is that in this case we have an eight-party Parliament, and no other.

Here lies the second “secret” of the elections. Many talk about a majority government, assuming that New Democracy needs 40%. However, if we’re talking about a six-party Parliament, it might need as little as 36%; if a seven-party Parliament emerges, 37%, and so on, always, of course, depending on the combined share of the parties that will remain outside Parliament. In fact, while the political accordion is now opening up with the founding of the two new parties, it already appears that out of the 14 parties, five or six are being left out of the picture, and this process may continue until the accordion closes.

In short, we seem to be heading toward elections that will test the established system of a single dominant body with a fragmented Opposition. As G. Voulgaris notes “The electorate will be faced with an established system in a peculiar party competition where the frontrunner runs alone on one field, while on the adjacent field three-four are competing for the respective positions” (NEA 6/13)

*Zacharias Zoupis, an executive at market research, polling, and communications firms since the 1990s, is currently Director of Research and Strategic Communications at OPINION POLL. He was responsible for the design, implementation, and scientific supervision of research programs and communication strategies. He has conducted numerous political, local government, social, and commercial surveys and focus groups. He has written hundreds of articles and two books (“Around Thirty,” “40+1 Articles on the Center-Left”).

The article was published on Liberal.gr