The new book by Andreas I. Andrianopoulos is a timely and insightful analysis of a conflict that is changing the balance in the Persian Gulf and directly affecting the lives of millions of people around the globe.
The book examines the consequences of the American-Israeli attack on Iran focusing on the appalling disruption caused to global energy supplies. The author analyses how oil and gas are returning to the forefront as vital factors, marginalising alternative sources and demonstrating the critical role of fossil fuels in our daily lives.
European energy policy is heavily criticised, describing it as a “tragic failure”. Europe, locked into “green growth” and renewable resources, is now held hostage to external factors for its economic survival, while Moscow emerges as the big winner of the crisis, technologically controlling Tehran’s nuclear programme and benefiting from soaring energy prices.
The author describes a world of “controlled chaos” and “instrumentalized interdependence” where crises are not solved but “frozen”, leading to a permanent negotiation of power with no end centre.
As the author explains,Europe has made two essentially tragic mistakes. One was its decision to wean itself off fossil fuels. It thus criminalised the use of lignite and coal and banned the extraction of oil and gas on its own soil. Fracking (hydraulic extraction from shale) was thus banned in Europe and energy supplies from the Netherlands and the North Sea were cut off. But it could import gas from Qatar, Azerbaijan and the USA. Because these did not add to the European environmental footprint! That is the height of European hypocrisy. The second essential error was the freezing of relations with Russia. At America’s urging, it was decided to gradually wean itself off Moscow in terms of energy. And it has effectively become dependent on the USA and Qatar. But the US is now reheating its relations with Moscow. And after the war with Iran, American gas is becoming very expensive. While Qatar, due to bombing and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has stopped exporting! What happens now? Questions arise without answers.
We pick up in the preamble:
The attack on Iran came relatively unexpectedly. Although anyone who could interpret President Trump’s words when he spoke of the “State of the Union” could easily see that a declaration of war was just around the corner. But this war is not like the others. Mainly because of the frightening disruption in energy supplies around the world. The lives of millions of people on the planet will certainly be affected by the conflicts in the Persian Gulf region. As will our perceptions of Islam and the West.
Of course, the confrontation between the United States and Israel and the Muslim regime in Tehran has a peculiarity. It is a conflict with Shiite Islam. That is, a branch of Islam that the dominant relative religious orthodoxy (Sunniism) considers heretical and blasphemous. For the vast majority of Muslims, Shiites are outside the correct teachings of the Prophet by following practices that are fundamentally offensive to the doctrine in which they believe. And since Islam is not only a religion but also a mindset, a political system and a way of life, an attack on Shia Muslims does not count as a total war against the teachings of Muhammad. This means that for the rest of Muslims this attack is not a motive for a general uprising and holy war against unbelieving “crusaders”.
The theological difference between these two versions of the Muslim religion is basically focused on the acceptance of Muhammad’s proper succession. The main body of the ulama (religious community) at the time decided that the succession should be won by the most suitable male associate of the Prophet, Abu Bark. For Muhammad had only a daughter, who was unable to succeed him. The decision was taken on the basis of the sacred rules (Sunnah). Hence the followers of this trend were called Sunnis. But there were others who decided to follow the family continuity of the Prophet, namely his cousin and the husband of his daughter, Ali. The “followers of Ali” (Shi’ite Ali) thus became the Shi’ites. Since then, the two trends have been divided leading also to fierce civil conflicts. The climax of the confrontation came later, when the second spiritual leader (imam) of the Shiites, Hussein, Ali’s son, was sacrificed in the name of his faith in the unequal battle of Karbala, in southern present-day Iraq.
Since then, self-sacrifice has characterized Shiites in the name of spiritual superiority. Their leader is called an Imam and heads a religious priesthood. The worship of the Imam has been universal, culminating in the “disappearance” of the 12th Imam in 874 AD – who is still expected to return as Mahdi (“expected”). Khomeini had never formally accepted the title of Imam that had been conferred upon him. This personalism is unbearably annoying to the Sunnis who, apart from the Caliph – who no longer exists after the dissolution of the Ottoman state – do not recognise any religious leader or official priesthood. They thus consider the Shiites to be idolaters, traitors to Islam, worthy of execution! Shiites are generally passive, revolting if their beliefs and leadership are compromised. Among the Sunnis, who are more numerous (about 80% of Muslims everywhere), there are jurisprudence that teaches fanatical versions of Islam. Such are the so-called Salafis (ancestral worshippers) of the Hanbali school as well as the Wahhabis (or Wahhabis), while the Hanafi school includes the Deobaptists, mainly from the Indian peninsula.
So the war in Iran, a classic centre of Shi’ism since the Safavid dynasty in Persia (1501-1736), does not bother Sunni Muslims, who dominate the majority of the world of Islam. Perhaps for some, it may even cause a sense of malicious relief. So, the West is not seriously at risk from an outbreak of internal unrest or isolated terrorist attacks. The energy sector is the only one that will be seriously affected. Perhaps more seriously than the 1973 crisis. Because today it is not only Iran that is involved, but also the other Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman). So oil and gas are once again coming back to the fore as vital energy factors, marginalising the so-called alternative sources. The critical role of fossil fuels in our daily lives is becoming apparent. For they have a direct role in the supply of electricity that affects almost everything related to our daily lives.
The war in Iran affects us all. Because energy and its security are of direct concern to us. In the few pages that follow, we will mention some of the critical issues surrounding it, from the prospects for ending it to the problems it has brought to the surface – especially for Europe.
War in Iran from Epicentre Publications
