Ten years after the referendum, Brexit remains the most striking example of how populism can reshape a country.
The tenth anniversary of the June 23, 2016, referendum offers an opportunity for a dispassionate assessment of one of the most significant political decisions in modern European history. Brexit was not merely a change in the relationship between United Kingdom with the European Union.
It marked the political triumph of a powerful wave of populism, which promised easy solutions to complex problems and presented Brexit as an event that would almost automatically lead to greater prosperity, a stronger democracy, and stricter border controls.
Ten years later, British politics continues to live in the shadow of that choice. The referendum shattered traditional political alliances, exacerbated social divisions, and introduced a new form of political confrontation centered on issues of identity, national sovereignty, and cultural concerns.
The wounds inflicted by the 2016 election have not yet healed. The party system is still in the process of realignment, while the rise of new political formations reveals that the search for a new balance remains an open question.
The economic reality behind the promises
In the economic sphere, the gap between campaign promises and actual results is particularly revealing. The British economy has maintained its position among the world’s largest economies in the world, and London remains one of the most important financial centers on the planet.
Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of economic analyses conclude that the country is on a lower growth trajectory than it would have been as a member of the European Union.
The Economist’s estimate that Brexit costs approximately 2.5% of GDP reflects the magnitude of this loss. The British economy continues to grow, but it is growing from a lower starting point and with limited potential compared to the “remain” scenario. Higher trade costs, reduced investment, labor market difficulties, and lower productivity paint a picture of a permanent economic burden.
This reality also explains the gradual shift in public opinion. The British no longer assess Brexit based on the expectations of 2016, but on the outcomes they have experienced over the past decade. Polls consistently show a majority that considers the decision to leave a mistake, as the promises of greater prosperity, better public services, and more effective control of migration flows have not produced the expected results.
A return to the European Union is not an immediate political goal for any major British political faction. The social and political fatigue caused by the years-long dispute over Brexit favors a more gradual approach through individual agreements and closer cooperation with Brussels.
The main lesson of the past decade concerns, above all, the power of simplistic narratives. When complex economic and geopolitical issues are reduced to slogans, reality usually takes a different course than what their proponents promise. Brexit is perhaps the most striking example of this observation in modern European political history.
