We are pleased that the first post-Easter poll was released yesterday.
First, because conspiracy theories were beginning to circulate that there are polls but they are not published because they are not in the interests of the Government which is collapsing.
Second, because the opposition is so obvious that reversal is imminent. Besides, the same scenarios that we were doggedly reading all through 2025 have appeared again.
That K. Mitsotakis is resigning, that the Government is falling, that the need for Oecumenics with familiar names and other positions for Prime Minister is very likely to arise. Ultimately the treasure trove. The South West is of course down 2.5%-3% which is no small thing and constitutes a serious loss and should be a concern as to how it proceeds, but it’s not like it’s knocked out either.
Note that we’ve seen the same thing three times in recent years (with same-sex marriage, with last year’s Tebi rallies, and the first OPEKEP) and then picked up the pieces. We’ll see this time if the same applies again.
So he has 25.7% in voting intention which translates to a 30.2% in the vote estimate, 12.2% ahead of PASOK who are second with some uptick and are at 13.5% in voting intention (15.9% in the vote estimate). From there it’s chaos with the exception of Maria Karystianou who appears third and close to double digits in the vote estimate.
Conclusion: ND loses what it won in March with the start of the war, PASOK has a slight upward trend and let’s wait for the two new parties Tsipras , Karystianou nto be founded (because then they have to be counted) because I reckon they will bring a big shake-up in the opposition space.
Of course let’s wait and see. In the next few days I believe the inquiries will fall like hailstones. So we’ll see the findings from several different surveys and we’ll have a solid polling picture. However, this is the time to state the obvious: Senarios and repetition of the same old, same old will not change reality. And along with that, that mere opposition and the contestation over who will call Mitsotakis more “mafioso”, more corrupt or more Orban, even if it rallies more of the already rallied around a party, does not lead to any particular results.
If any existing or incipient party wants to stand out and become a real force for challenging for power, it has to do two simple things: Try to give hope for a better future and say what it wants to do, how it will do it and with whom it will do it. Moralising and believing that if you keep raising the stakes you will go further and stronger are just illusions.
Let’s move on to changes in the coming period and let’s not forget something that N. Machiavelli quotes in The Hegemon ” The most widespread defect of men is that in the summer they do not reckon the storm”.
* This article was published at Liberal.gr
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