Two studies have already been published after Easter and there will be many more in succession because we are probably entering a period of major events, the emergence of new parties and intense political processes.
So let’s not worry those who wondered why polls aren’t coming out, suggesting that something is hidden and probably a complete collapse of government. I’m sure quite a few of them will be talking about the many polls going on in Greece in a while.
But let’s look at what’s emerged so far. In the end it’s a treasure trove. The N.D.. drops 3% in one survey and 1.5% in the other, of course. You don’t call it a negligible or small drop and it constitutes a loss and should concern the government about how to proceed, but you don’t call it a knockout.
Apparently the new documents, the inclusion of the names of government members of parliament and the initiatives of the opposition played their part. However, the issue that arose for Mr Lazaridis also brought disproportionate corruption. The handlings played a role in that. What is the result: The new government has been embarrassed, has suffered damage of the order we are reporting (we will of course look at the polling totals), stumbling more or less the moment it got away. In the March polls it stood at 31.5%-33%.
The question is therefore whether it can soon make up for any corruption and move on. But let’s look at what has happened in recent years with key moments when the government appeared to be losing steam. We have seen roughly the same phenomenon three times in recent years.
The first was with same-sex marriage, the second was with last year’s Tempi rallies and the third was with the first FOPECEP. In all three of these cases we had smaller or larger losses and then picked up the damage in two or three months. We will see this time if the same applies again.
What is certain is that the SD has stocks and can pull it off. In this direction, it is important that those who each time “left” did not go elsewhere, but were transferred to the so-called “grey zone”. It was evident in short the inability of some opposition party to be able to act as a polis for those of the 2023 New Dem voters who more occasionally or more permanently express dissatisfaction. This makes it easier for ND to re-engage such forces again, with appropriate initiatives.
The New Democracy can reconvince the disaffected of this phase. But nothing is also self-evident in Politics.
But the problem lies in the following points:
Firstly that we are now in the final straight to the General Election and everything is costly if not dealt with much more quickly. And if one takes into account that toxicity will rise and opposition attacks will increase, even small back and forths will be a problem.
Second, that whenever a crisis of any magnitude occurs a backlog of reflexes emerges, mistakes are easily made in management and a lack of timely and effective political and communication management is highlighted. The case of Mr Lazaridis was typical. It was an issue that should and could have been resolved in a matter of hours, not a week.
Third, that a caution is needed in the following. If a segment of New Democrat voters are more easily polling to “walk away” on a problem, there may come a time when they will consider not coming back, to take a divorce.
Fourth, that while when the N.D. rises, a host of government and political figures enter the picture of success in one way or another, when harder times come, some disappear.
In short, the Southwest can move on, make up for any losses this term, but it certainly needs to see the “team”. That is, how to create an army determined not only to be first, which is discounted, but to get the highest possible percentage.
But let’s summarize the political picture, always with the data from two surveys we know the results of. New Dems come in with 25.5%-25.7% in voting intent which points to a 30.2%-30.6% in vote estimate with a 12% difference.2% from PASOK which is second with some rise and is at 13.5% in the vote intention (15.6%-15.9% in the vote estimate). From there it’s chaos.
The opposition therefore, all the parties that make up the opposition more or less open their own aisles due to their weakness to Maria Karustianou and A. Tsipras. Right now, the plates on which the current correlations are moving, and the emergence of the two new parties may (depending on the ability they show) bring a political earthquake that will hit the current opposition.
Pr. Prime Minister, absorbing SYRIZA, New Left and sidelining PASOK but also part of Pleisi Eleftherias and at the same time on the other side Maria Karustianou pushing Pleisi Eleftherias, Hellenic Solution, Voice of Reason, right and left opposition audiences. In this scenario, ND will pass alive with minimal losses, but the Opposition space will have transformed. So we’re talking about the possibility of births for the government because of this factor as well.
Of course let’s wait. Over the next few days we’ll see the findings from several different surveys and we’ll have a serious polling picture. However, this is the moment to state the obvious: With scenarios and repetition of the same old same old, reality does not change.
And along with that, that pure opposition and bickering over who gets to call Mitsotakis more “mafioso”, more corrupt or more Orban, even if it rallies more of the already rallied around a party, doesn’t lead to much of a result.
If any existing or nascent party wants to stand out and become a real force for claiming power it has to do two simple things: Try to give hope for a better future and say what it wants to do, how it will do it and with whom it will do it. The morality and the belief that if you keep raising the stakes you will go further and stronger are just illusions. Otherwise it’s as if the current Opposition is self-entrenching and giving room for attacking the government.
Let’s see…
Republished from todaypress.gr
