Systemic risks remained unchanged in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Bank of Greece.
In more detail, the quarterly assessment of the intensity of cyclical systemic risks and the appropriateness of the countercyclical capital buffer ratio safety for Greece takes into account the standardised difference of credit to GDP, the safety buffer guide and, most importantly, additional indicators for the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks.
The buffer guide, as defined in the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) Recommendation ESRB/2014/1, is “zero”, given that the standardised spread of credit to the RRP has remained negative since Q3 2012 and, based on the latest available data, in Q3 2025it stood at -21.0 percentage points.
In addition, the Bank of Greece is examining additional indicators for the creation and accumulation of cyclical systemic risks, covering credit developments, private sector borrowing, residential and commercial real estate, external imbalances, the banking sector and capital markets. The analysis of additional indicators highlights the beginning of the build-up of cyclical systemic risks in individual areas, such as the financing of non-financial corporations, residential real estate prices and the current account balance, but overall confirms the assessment of the absence of excessive credit expansion.
In conclusion, cyclical systemic risks in Greece for Q2 2026 remain limited and the risk environment appears neutral.
In this context, the Bank of Greece does not consider it necessary to change the countercyclical capital buffer rate for Greece, which remains at 0.5%, i.e. at the level of the targeted positive countercyclical capital buffer rate in a risk-neutral environment.
It is noted that the Bank of Greece has adopted the positive countercyclical capital buffer in a risk-neutral environment in Greece, which is triggered at an early stage of the economic and financial cycle, when cyclical systemic risks are neither subdued nor elevated. For the period from 1.10.2025 to 30.09.2026, the countercyclical capital buffer rate held by credit institutions is 0.25%, in accordance with Executive Committee Act 235/2/07.10.2024.
