The Crete Centre OECD Centre for Population Dynamics: We are living longer, giving birth less, but we can turn the demographic winter into a window of opportunity for economy and society.
The demographic climate as one of the most important challenges of the next fifty years was highlighted by the event organized by the OECD Crete Centre on Population Dynamics in the framework of the Delphi Economic Forum, on the theme “Demography-Driven Competitiveness: Strategies for Sustainable Growth, Social and Territorial Cohesion” (“Demography-Driven Competitiveness: Strategies for Sustainable Growth, Social and Territorial Cohesion”)
The event, which was opened and moderated by Professor Aris Alexopoulos, Head of the OECD Centre for Population Dynamics in Crete, was attended by: Akis Skirtsos, Minister of State, Tomasz Kozluk, Economic Advisor to the OECD Chief Economist, Arnstein Aassve, Professor of Demography and Social Statistics at Bocconi University, Italy, and Michalis Vlastarakis, Group Chief Marketing Officer of Eurobank.
Mr. Alexopoulos focused on the need to address demographics not only as an isolated problem of ageing, under-generation or pressure on public finances, but as an issue embedded in the overall effort to improve the competitiveness of countries through productive transformation and the promotion of social cohesion and regional development.
As highlighted, the establishment of the OECD’s Crete Thematic Centre on Population Dynamics in Greece is part of a broader economic diplomacy strategy, offering the country access to international expertise, comparative data and evidence-based policy recommendations to address demographic challenges. The Centre systematically studies the dynamics of populations, from births, deaths and migration to education, skills and the ability of human resources to integrate into the labour market.
According to the data highlighted in the discussion, Greece has for many years (since 1980) moved into the zone of low fertility countries. With a fertility rate of 1.35 children per mother in 2024 it has one of the lowest rates in Europe. This trend is leading to rapid ageing and population shrinkage. The country’s population, currently hovering around 10 million, is expected to decline to 8.5 million by 2050, with a significant change in its age composition and a majority of people over 45 years of age.
The debate highlighted the need to manage demography through coordinated interventions in many policy areas: work, family, education, housing, health, regional development, innovation and migration. Particular attention was given to increasing the participation of women in the labour market, as 55% of women in the country are currently in employment compared to 72% of men. Furthermore, the retention of middle-aged people in work at least until the age of 65, as well as the integration into work of 800,000 people aged 55-65 who are currently not employed.
The relationship between demography, productivity and technology was also discussed. Robotics, artificial intelligence and new technologies can act as drivers of productivity improvements, provided they are designed and implemented in an age-friendly way for all ages and especially for middle-aged workers. The creation of mixed work teams, with young and older workers, can combine innovation with experience.
“Greece is becoming a “middle-aged society”, where young people are the new minority. This development poses major challenges for the economy, the organisation of society and the maintenance of social cohesion. The increase in life expectancy, which is also the result of advances in medical science, is radically changing the way in which work, health, welfare and intergenerational solidarity are organised. Particular emphasis was placed on the consequences for the country’s productive potential. According to a recent study by the OECD Centre for Population Dynamics in Crete, by 2050, the available productive potential is expected to be reduced by 2 million people. If the production model remains unchanged, with less human potential and the same labour productivity, GDP per capita could fall by 15%, directly affecting the country’s standard of living.
In this context. Alexopoulos presented the “demographic winter”as a window of opportunity to better organize the economy and society by tapping all available pools of human resources, upgrading productivity and shifting to policies that enhance active participation, health and skills throughout life.
“Demography is a challenge facing both rich and poor countries,” said State Minister Akis Skertos. “The prudent fiscal policy of recent years provides significant scope for intervention. The government is implementing a ten-year national strategy with resources of €20 billion, covering the entire life cycle from birth to old age. Policies are already being implemented, such as tax incentives for families, with rates decreasing according to the number of children, extensive prevention programmes already reaching over 6 million citizens, the “My House 1 and 2” programmes subsidising the purchase of old apartments for 30,000 beneficiaries and the “I save – I renovate for young people” programme with a budget of €300 million. The strategy does not rely only on subsidy measures, but is a holistic approach that attempts to achieve high rates of balanced growth through all 12 regional development strategies.”
Tom Tomasz Kozluk, Economic Advisor to the OECD Chief Economist, noted that “Population ageing is a defining but relatively predictable trend, which also reflects progress towards longer and healthier lives. OECD simulations reflect a likely 8% decline in GDP per capita in 2050 due to ageing, with even sharper declines in countries such as Greece. The challenges relate to public finances, labour shortages and productivity. However, policies for healthy longevity, longer and more flexible working lives and beneficial use of AI can significantly mitigate the impact.”
Arnstein Aassve, Professor of Demography and Social Statistics at Bocconi University, pointed out that “the younger generation is significantly smaller in size than Generation X, which affects not only the economy but also its democratic representation. This should be taken into account by governments when designing policies. The welfare state was designed to serve a completely different demographic structure, which no longer exists. In designing the necessary reforms in an environment of constant crises, the resilience factor should be built in, both to halt population decline and to boost productivity and strengthen the labour market.”
Finally, Michalis Vlastarakis, Group Chief Marketing Officer of Eurobank, said that “demographics is the most important long-term challenge for the Greek economy and society and requires coordinated interventions by the State and the private sector. At Eurobank we have undertaken a multi-year initiative focusing on employment, entrepreneurship and family support, already contributing to the birth of more than 70 children through assisted reproduction support programmes and offering more than 1,000 baby kits, particularly in remote areas. Addressing the issue requires targeted policies and a coherent framework of incentives for sustainable development.”
By linking scientific knowledge, comparative data and applied policy, the OECD’s Crete Centre for Population Dynamics aspires to make a substantial contribution to public debate and policy design that turns demographic pressure into an opportunity for a more productive, cohesive and resilient society.
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