Mediobanca raises its target price to EUR 53 for GEK Terna, maintaining an “Outperform” recommendation.
The target price upgrade reflects, according to the Italian bank, the ongoing transformation of GEK Terna, which is characterised by increased cash flow predictability and enhanced profitability margins.
GEK Terna’s medium-term growth, and interest from companies such as Medioblanca, is fuelled by the increasing contribution of the concessions portfolio (especially highways), the improved operating performance of the construction business and the expanded pipeline of projects in Greece and the Southeast Europe.
Financial results for the first quarter of 2026 exceeded forecasts, with an operating profitability (Ebitda) of EUR 166 million (+22% y/y) and a net profit of EUR 35 million (+66% y/y), thanks mainly to a significant contribution from the highways segment and improved profitability in construction. The Highways segment recorded revenue growth of around 38% with a strong contribution from the Egnatia Highway, driving the improvement in the quality mix of revenues (recurring/regular). At the same time, the construction sector shows a significant operating profitability margin, confirming the Group’s strategic shift towards high-yield projects.
For the period 2026-2028, Mediobanca puts Ebitda between €700-816 million, while net profit is expected to reach up to €192 million, as the concessions portfolio gradually matures and profitability margins stabilise. GEK TERNA’s growth prospects are further strengthened by the expanded pipeline of new infrastructure projects (road projects, PPPs, etc.), as well as by strategic placements in new growth sectors. These include water management, with GEK TERNA having acquired 13% of EYDAP, securing access to a sector where €8-10 billion of investments are expectedas well as energy storage, where the Group is involved in projects with regulated returns, such as the Amfilochia pumped storage project.
According to Mediobanca, GEK TERNA’s financial profile is shielded, with around 95% of its borrowings directly linked to specific projects (project finance, non-recourse), drastically limiting risk at the parent company level.
In conclusion, the investment grade (BBB-/Baa3) and strong liquidity reinforce the credibility of GEK Terna’s investment narrative.
